两例相似路径台风降水差异的成因及预报分析
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施春红(1968—),女,高级工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报,schleiyu@qq.com。

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中国气象局暴雨专家创新团队专项(CMACXTD002-3);公益性行业(气象)科研专项 (GYHY201506007)


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Analysis on precipitation difference of two typhoons with similar tracks
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    摘要:

    2016年超强台风“尼伯特”和“莫兰蒂”的路径极为相似,登陆福建北上途经太湖流域后入海的路径也几乎重合,但太湖流域出现的降水却迥然不同,前者仅造成了太湖流域个别测站的暴雨-大暴雨,后者则出现大范围暴雨-大暴雨。利用常规气象观测资料、多普勒雷达资料、中国气象局的台风最佳数据集及美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的再分析资料等,对两个台风登陆后的环流背景、台风结构特征等进行了对比分析。结果发现:“莫兰蒂”登陆后的低压环流结构保持良好,北上过程中与外围浅层冷空气的相互作用明显,海上水汽输送通道畅通,台风倒槽导致太湖流域大范围暴雨-大暴雨;“尼伯特”登陆后迅速减弱,环流结构出现“空心化”,水汽输送弱,高层弱冷空气与台风残余低涡的叠加触发局地短时强降水,未能导致太湖流域大范围暴雨。从预报回顾看,模式对登陆台风北上过程中强度预报过强是导致“尼伯特”在太湖流域风雨预报过度的主要原因。3 d以上的中期台风降水预报中,经验概念模型与模式集合预报结果的相互印证,有利于得出比模式确定性降水预报更合理的预报结论。

    Abstract:

    The tracks of super typhoon “Nepartak” and “Meranti” (in 2016) are very similar. They both landed in southern Fujian, turned northward, crossed Taihu Lake Basin, and moved into the Yellow Sea. But the precipitation in Taihu Lake basin caused by the two TCs are quite different, while the former caused only scattered rainstorms, the latter generated large scale rainstorms. In this paper, the environmental conditions and structures of the two typhoons are compared and analyzed based on conventional observations, Doppler radar data, CMA-STI Best Track Dataset, and NCEP reanalysis data. The results show that: 1) The Merantis circulation structure was maintained during its landing and advance northward. With significant interactions between Meranti and the low level cold air, and strong water vapor transmission from ocean, large range heavy rainfall in Taihu Lake Basin was generated within the typhoon Inverted Trough. 2) Nepartak weakened rapidly after landing, resulted in hollowing out cyclonic circulation. The transmission of water vapor from ocean was weak and blocked. Though the superimposing of Nepartaks residual vortex and weak cold air in mid troposphere triggered scattered rainstorms, no large range of heavy rainfall presented in the Taihu Lake Basin. 3) In operational forecast, the precipitation caused by Meranti was over estimated due to a misleading stronger TC intensity forecast by numerical model. 4) Mutually validation of the forecast from empirical concept method and the ensemble model is beneficial for forecasters to get a better skill than that of the deterministic model, especially for mid-term forecast.

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施春红,吴君婧,漆梁波.两例相似路径台风降水差异的成因及预报分析[J].海洋气象学报,2017,37(3):36-45.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-05-09
  • 最后修改日期:2017-07-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-09-08
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