Based on WRF ensemble forecast system, a product of precipitation forecast is developed using probability matching method. Comprehensive evaluations are carried out for thirteen heavy rainfall processes in Shandong province from 2014 to 2016. The results show that skills of different methods are significantly different in precipitation forecast for intense rainfall processes, especially for rainstorms; The probability matching precipitation forecast have a significant improvement compared to the ensemble average products for heavy rainfalls, and it is also better than that of the WRF deterministic forecasts, indicating certain guiding significance in heavy rainfall forecast. Improvements are made by probability matching method in precipitation forecast of all levels, especially in adjusting the area of heavy rainfall. Probability matching products improve the area and intensity forecast of heavy rainfall, but can barely improve the total precipitation.