文章摘要
张永婧，高帆，于丽娟，褚颖佳，尹承美，孙长征.济南市区短时强降水特征分析与天气分型[J].海洋气象学报,2017,37(3):109-116
济南市区短时强降水特征分析与天气分型
Characteristics analysis and synoptic classification of short-duration heavy rainfall in Jinan urban area
投稿时间：2016-09-21  修订日期：2017-08-03
DOI：10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2017.03.013
中文关键词: 短时强降水  天气分型  预报概念模型  关键环境参量
英文关键词: short-duration heavy rainfall  synoptic classification  forecast conceptual models  key environmental parameters
基金项目:山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目（sdjn2016-04）
作者单位
张永婧，高帆，于丽娟，褚颖佳，尹承美，孙长征 济南市气象局 
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中文摘要:
   利用2007—2015年济南市区及历城区自动气象观测站的逐小时降水量资料，以及常规高空、地面观测资料，统计了198次短时强降水过程的范围和强度特征，年际、月际变化特征，按照短时强降水发生时的天气形势和影响系统，分为切变线型、低槽冷锋型、西风槽型、冷涡型、台风外围型及无系统型6类，并分析了不同类型和不同范围短时强降水的关键环境参量。研究表明：短时强降水的强度与范围有较好的相关性，7月中旬—8月中旬出现强降水的次数最多；切变线型短时强降水发生范围与强度分布最广，7、8月的低槽冷锋型过程极易造成大范围高强度降水；地面露点（Td）、850 hPa假相当位温（θse）、对流有效位能（CAPE）以及暖云层厚度能较好地区分不同范围的短时强降水过程。在天气分型的基础上，结合不同降水范围和不同降水类型环境参量箱线图与阈值表，可为济南市区短时强降水的预报提供有价值的参考。 
英文摘要:
   The characteristics of scopes, intensities, yearly and monthly variation in short-duration heavy rainfalls were analyzed by using the hourly precipitation data of automatic weather stations in Jinan and Licheng district and the conventional high-level and surface observation data from 2007 to 2015. The short-time heavy rainfalls were classified into six types, including shear-line, cold-front, upper-trough, cold-vortex, typhoon-periphery and non-system types, according to the synoptic environment and the influence systems. Key environmental parameters of short-time heavy rainfalls were also discussed. The results show that there was a close correlation between the scopes and intensity of short-duration heavy rainfalls, and short-duration rainfalls occurred most frequently from mid-July to mid-August. The shear-line type heavy rainfalls occurred t with large scope and strong intensity, while the cold-front type one could cause severe precipitation in July and August .Different types of short-time rainfalls could be classified by the surface dew point, 850 hPa θse, CAPE, and warm cloud thickness. Combined with the box-plots and thresholds of environment parameters in different scopes and types of precipitation, the synoptic classification could provide valuable reference for the short-duration heavy rainfall forecasting in Jinan urban district.
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