文章摘要
向纯怡,钱传海.海基观测资料在改进南海台风强度分析中的应用[J].海洋气象学报,2018,38(2):20-27
海基观测资料在改进南海台风强度分析中的应用
Application of ocean-based observation data on improving tropical cyclone intensity analysis over the South China Sea
投稿时间:2018-01-19  修订日期:2018-04-03
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2018.02.003
中文关键词: 海基观测  南海台风  强度分析
英文关键词: ocean-based observation  TCs over the South China Sea  intensity analysis
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430103,2015CB452803);国家气象中心预报员专项(Y201707)
作者单位
向纯怡,钱传海 (国家气象中心北京 100081) 
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中文摘要:
      探讨了一种利用海岛自动站、石油平台站、海洋气象浮标观测站、船载自动气象站等在内的海基观测资料来改进南海热带气旋强度分析的客观估计方案,并利用该方案对近几年(2013—2016年)出现在南海海域的18个热带气旋强度进行了分析。结果表明:该方案的估计误差与基于卫星遥感资料分析得到的结果水平相当,其估计效果与热带气旋的自身强度和有效样本数量有关,同时是否有观测样本位于热带气旋最大风速半径内也会影响估计的准确性。在传统基于卫星遥感资料对热带气旋强度主客观分析出现不一致时,利用海基观测来估计台风的强度可以作为一种补充方案来提高强度分析的可靠性。
英文摘要:
      Based on meteorological data from island automatic weather stations (AWS), oil platforms, buoy observation stations and shipboard AWS, an objective estimation method of improving TC (tropical cyclone) intensity analysis over the South China Sea is discussed. The tropical intensity of 18 tropical cyclones from 2013 to 2016 has been analyzed using that objective method. The results show that the averaged estimation errors using that method are at the same level with those based on atmospheric satellites. Meanwhile, the estimation is related to the TC intensity itself and the number of valid observation samples. Whether there are observation samples located inside the maximum wind radius can also influence the estimated outcomes. In the case of inconsistent intensity analysis, the use of ocean based observation can serve as a supplemental method in TC intensity analysis.
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