文章摘要
董旭光, 邱粲, 李娟,刘焕彬.1981—2016年山东陆地观测最大风速变化特征[J].海洋气象学报,2018,38(2):87-95
1981—2016年山东陆地观测最大风速变化特征
Spatial and temporal distribution of terrestrial annual maximum wind speed in Shandong from 1981 to 2016
投稿时间:2017-12-28  修订日期:2018-04-03
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2018.02.011
中文关键词: 最大风速  气候倾向率  突变  重现期
英文关键词: maximum wind speed  climate tendency rate  mutation  recurrence intervals
基金项目:环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201611);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306034)
作者单位
董旭光, 邱粲, 李娟,刘焕彬 (山东省气候中心山东 济南 250031) 
摘要点击次数: 268
全文下载次数: 196
中文摘要:
      基于山东1981—2016年121个气象站的年最大风速观测数据,应用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验等方法研究了山东年最大风速的空间分布特征、时间演变规律及突变特征、重现期特征。结果表明:山东年平均最大风速呈逐年波动减小变化趋势,气候倾向率为-1.41 m·s-1·(10 a)-1,减小趋势极显著;沿海地区和鲁中山区最大风速较大,鲁南和鲁西南较小;2000年以来,最大风速相对20世纪80、90年代明显减小;莱州湾、山东半岛东南沿海减小趋势最明显,鲁东南等地减小趋势较小;山东最大风速在2002年前后发生突变,突变后明显减小,不同区域最大风速突变发生年份不同;50 a和100 a最大风速重现期结果与观测的最大风速空间分布类似。
英文摘要:
      Based on annual maximum wind speed data from 121 meteorological stations in Shandong from 1981 to 2016, the spatial characteristics, the temporal evolution, mutation, and recurrence intervals of annual maximum wind speed are analyzed using climate tendency rate and Mann Kendall mutation test, meanwhile the characteristics of other wind parameters such as gust wind speed and wind days are analyzed. The results show that the annual average maximum wind speed presents a significant downtrend with fluctuations year by year and the climate tendency rate is -141 m·s-1·(10 a)-1. The maximum wind speed in coastal areas and central mountainous areas is larger than that in the south and southwest of Shandong. The maximum wind speed since 2000 has an obvious decrease compared to that in 1980s and 1990s. The most obvious decrease happens in Laizhou Bay and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Penisula, while the decrease is smaller in areas like the southeast of Shandong. The maximum wind speed has abrupt change in 2002 and its is obviously smaller after the abrupt change. The abrupt change of maximum wind speed happens in different time for different areas. The spatial distribution of maximum wind speed of the recurrence interval of 50 years and 100 years is similar to that from the observation data.
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