文章摘要
杨雯婷1,朱伟军1,李欣2.冬季北极涛动异常对北太平洋风暴轴的可能影响[J].海洋气象学报,2018,38(3):20-29
冬季北极涛动异常对北太平洋风暴轴的可能影响
Possible influence of Arctic Oscillation anomalies on the North Pacific storm track during winter
投稿时间:2018-05-17  修订日期:2018-06-26
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2018.03.003
中文关键词: 北极涛动异常  北太平洋风暴轴  相关关系  影响机制
英文关键词: Arctic Oscillation anomalies  the North Pacific storm track  correlation  influence mechanism
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41575070,41075070);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306028)
作者单位
杨雯婷1,朱伟军1,李欣2 (1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京2100442.忻州市气象局山西忻州034000) 
摘要点击次数: 269
全文下载次数: 207
中文摘要:
      基于美国国家海洋和大气局气候预测中心公报的北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)指数逐月数据以及美国国家环境预报中心和大气研究中心的1986—2017年逐日再分析资料等,运用回归和合成分析等方法,分析了北极涛动与北太平洋地区风暴轴的时间演变特征、两者之间的联系及AO异常影响风暴轴的可能机制。结果表明:1)风暴轴经度指数与纬度指数有显著正相关性,两者具有同步变化的特征,而这两者与风暴轴强度指数都呈负相关,但不显著。AO指数与北太平洋风暴轴强度呈显著正相关,且AO指数与风暴轴经度、纬度指数也呈正相关,但并不显著。2)在北极涛动强正(负)位相年份,风暴轴区域天气尺度滤波方差强(弱)、500 hPa高度场上东亚大槽减弱(加深)、急流偏北偏强(偏南偏弱)、扰动动能增强(减弱)、斜压性增强(减弱)。可能影响机制是,异常变化的AO影响东亚大槽,改变急流强度,使斜压性发生变化,进而对风暴轴产生影响。
英文摘要:
      On the basis of monthly Arctic Oscillation (AO) data from NOAA (Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and daily reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research ) from 1986 to 2017, by using regression and synthetic analysis, the temporal evolution characteristics of AO and the North Pacific storm track, the relations between AO index and storm track index (including intensity, longitude, latitude index), and the possible physical mechanism of AO anomalies on the storm track are studied. The results are as follows. 1) The longitude index of the storm track has significant positive correlation with the latitude index of the storm track, and they both have the feature of synchronous change, but they both have non significant negative correlation with the intensity index of the storm track. The correlation between AO index and the intensity of the North Pacific storm track is significantly positive. The correlation between AO index and the longitude/latitude of the storm track is positive, but not significant. 2) Further analysis indicates that, in the years when AO is in strong positive/negative phase, the synoptic scale filtering variance becomes stronger/weaker, the East Asia major trough becomes weaker/stronger at the level of 500 hPa, the jet stream moves northward/southward and becomes stronger/weaker, the disturbance kinetic energy becomes stronger/weaker, and the baroclinicity becomes stronger/weaker in the areas of the North Pacific storm track. The possible influence mechanism is that the anomalous changes of AO affect the East Asia major trough, change the intensity of westerly jet stream and the baroclinicity, and then exert an effect on the storm track.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭