文章摘要
薛德强.青岛汛期降水量与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(1):46-54
青岛汛期降水量与太平洋年代际振荡的关系
Study on the relationship between precipitation during flood season in Qingdao and Pacific decadal oscillation
  
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.01.005
中文关键词: PDO指数  汛期降水量  SSTI指数  降水预测
英文关键词: PDO index  precipitation during flood season  SSTI  precipitation prediction
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0605604,2017YFC1501802)
作者单位
薛德强 (山东省气象科学研究所山东 济南 250031) 
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中文摘要:
   基于太平洋海面温度(SST)、大气环流及青岛降水量资料,分析并发现了青岛汛期(6—9月)降水量与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数存在重要联系。当PDO处于冷位相时,西北太平洋区SST偏高,北美沿岸以及热带中东太平洋区SST偏低,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱偏东,脊线偏北,东亚夏季风偏强,青岛汛期降水量偏多,反之偏少。定义了一个新的太平洋SST距平指数SSTI,该指数包含了西北太平洋与热带中东太平洋SST距平反相变化的协同影响,也包含了PDO与ENSO的协同影响。与PDO指数、西北太平洋及热带中东太平洋SST相比,该指数与青岛汛期降水量相关性更好,通常SSTI正指数对应着汛期西太平洋副热带高压脊线偏北,面积偏小、强度偏弱,东亚夏季风偏强,有利于青岛汛期降水量偏多,反之偏少。SSTI指数可作为青岛汛期降水量预测的指示因子。
英文摘要:
   Based on the analysis of Pacific SST (sea surface temperature), atmospheric circulation, and precipitation in Qingdao, it is found that there is important relationship between the precipitation in Qingdao and the PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) index during flood season. When the PDO is in the cold phase, the SST is higher over western North Pacific but lower over the coast of North America and tropical middle-eastern Pacific, the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker and eastward whose ridge line is northward, the East Asian summer monsoon is stronger, and the precipitation in Qingdao during flood season is more. Conversely, the precipitation is less. A new Pacific SST anomaly index, SSTI, is defined, which includes the synergistic effects of the out-of-phase changes of SST anomaly in western North Pacific and the tropical middle-eastern Pacific and also the synergistic effects of the PDO and ENSO. Compared with the PDO index and the SST over western North Pacific and the tropical middle-eastern Pacific, this index has a better correlation with the precipitation in Qingdao during flood season. Generally, the positive SSTI corresponds to the northward position of the ridge line, smaller area and weak intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high during flood season and stronger East Asian summer monsoon, which is favorable for more precipitation in Qingdao during flood season. Conversely, the precipitation is less. So, the SSTI can be used as an indicator for the precipitation prediction during flood season in Qingdao.
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