文章摘要
柳龙生,吕心艳,高拴柱.2018年西北太平洋和南海台风活动概述[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(2):1-12
2018年西北太平洋和南海台风活动概述
Overview of typhoon activities over western North Pacific and the South China Sea
投稿时间:2019-04-02  修订日期:2019-04-15
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.02.001
中文关键词: 台风  登陆  强降水  预报误差
英文关键词: typhoon  landfall  heavy precipitation  forecast error
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2015CB452805);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-147);国家气象中心预报员专项(Y201911)
作者单位
柳龙生,吕心艳,高拴柱 国家气象中心北京 100081 
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中文摘要:
      2018年共有29个台风在西北太平洋和南海生成,生成台风个数偏多,南海台风活跃。有10个台风登陆我国,登陆强度整体明显偏弱,但是登陆台风个数明显偏多、登陆时间集中、登陆地段偏北、北上台风偏多,造成台风降水范围广、暴雨强度大、超警河流多。其中,“安比”、“摩羯”、“温比亚”一个月内相继在华东地区登陆并深入内陆北上,且登陆后长时间维持热带风暴级强度,给华东、华北、东北等地区带来大范围强降雨。“艾云尼”移动缓慢,与西南季风环流相结合,给广东等地区造成长时间的持续强降水。“山竹”是2018年登陆我国最强台风,其7级风圈明显偏大,给广东、香港等地区带来大范围、长时间的强风和强降水。2018年所有预报时效的路径预报误差较2017年均有所降低,路径预报水平进一步提高,但是强度预报水平仍然没有明显的进步。
英文摘要:
      There are 29 named typhoons formed in western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2018 and the number is more than the climate average. Typhoon genesis is much more active in the South China Sea. Ten typhoons landed on the coast of China and are much more than the average (7 typhoons), but the average typhoon intensity is weaker than the climate average. Most of typhoons landed in Zhejiang and Shanghai in July and August and then move northward, causing wide ranges of precipitation, torrential rain, and many rivers exceeding the flood warning line. Typhoon AMPIL (1810), YAGI (1814), and RUMBIA (1818) successively made landfall in East China within one month and then moved into North China and Northeast China maintaining tropical storm intensity for a long time, which brought heavy rainfall to East China, North China, and Northeast China. Typhoon EWINIAR (1804) moved slowly and interacted with southwest monsoon circulation, causing a long period of continuous strong precipitation in Guangdong and other regions. Typhoon MANGKHUT (1822) is the strongest typhoon landed in China in 2018 with obviously larger radius of gale bringing a wider range of strong winds and heavy precipitation for a long time to Guangdong, Hong Kong, and other regions. The track forecast error in 2018 is smaller than that in 2017, but there is still no obvious progress in the typhoon intensity forecast.
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