文章摘要
刁秀广1,孟宪贵1,张立2,任钟冬3,赵海军4.台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(3):19-28
台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析
Analysis of microscale vortex signature and early warning capability of tornadoes in the circulations of Typhoon YAGI and RUMBIA
投稿时间:2019-05-06  修订日期:2019-06-01
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.03.003
中文关键词: 龙卷  小尺度涡旋  最大径向速度差  识别与预警
英文关键词: sea fog over the Yellow and Bohai Seas  visibility algorithm  relative humidity  water vapor mixing ratio  numerical prediction
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41375120);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016DM20);山东省气象局科研项目(2016sdqxz01)
作者单位
刁秀广1,孟宪贵1,张立2,任钟冬3,赵海军4 (1. 山东省气象台山东 济南 2500312. 东营市气象局山东 东营 2570913. 滨州市气象局山东 滨州 2566004. 临沂市气象局山东 临沂 276004) 
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中文摘要:
      利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”(1814)和8月19日台风“温比亚”(1818)产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明:两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV>20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV>20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。
英文摘要:
      The weakened low of Typhoon YAGI and RUMBIA crossed Shandong Province on 14 and 19 August 2018. The surrounding circulation produced multiple tornadoes and brought about serious economic losses. Based on the data of Doppler weather radar, conventional observations, weather conditions, and disaster investigation, the environmental physical variations and structural characteristics of intensity of tornado storms are analyzed, and the signatures of microscale cyclonic vortices that induced and did not induce tornadoes are compared. The results show that the northeast quadrant of two weakened low-pressure circulations is the key area for the occurrence of tornadoes. The low-level high humidity, strong low-level vertical wind shear, and large storm relative helicity are key physical quantities. Tornadoes are accompanied by microscale cyclonic vortices with ΔV larger than 20.0 m·s-1, which occur mainly below 2.0 km, but not all such low-level microscale cyclonic vortices can induce tornadoes. With ΔV larger than 20.0 m·s-1 as the threshold, the hit rate of tornado recognition is high, the accuracy of tornado recognition is 31.8%, the false alarm rate is 67.4%, and the missing alarm rate is 6.7%. About 35.7% of the tornadoes are unable to be identified in advance, and half of the tornadoes have almost no early warning time.
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