鲁中地区强对流天气的气候特征及相关环境参数特征分析
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高晓梅,女,硕士,正高级工程师,主要从事短期及短时临近天气预报研究,wfmeizi@126.com。俞小鼎,男,博士,教授,主要从事多普勒天气雷达应用和临近预报技术研究,xdyu1962@126.com。

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国家自然科学基金项目(41775044,41675046);山东省气象局科研项目(2014sdqxm14,sdyby201710,2018sdqxz08,sdyby2018-10);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201707)


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Climatic characteristics and environmental parameters of severe convective weather in central region of Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    利用鲁中地区2001—2016年伴随瞬时风力不低于8级的所有强对流天气个例共106次进行分析,总结其气候特征,并通过箱须图的形式研究了分类强对流天气相关环境参数的分布特征和预报阈值。结果表明:2001—2016年强对流天气分布呈山区多、平原少、中部多、北部和西南部少的特点;6月和6月中旬是主要月份和旬份;地面辐合线是最主要触发机制类型;雷暴大风型、冰雹雷暴大风型和强降水混合型对应的地面和850 hPa的平均温度露点差,0~1 km和0~3 km垂直风切变,SWEAT指数、LI指数、K指数、风暴相对螺旋度、高度指数等环境参数各有不同的最低阈值;鲁中地区易发生强对流天气的0 ℃层高度为4.1 km左右;对于伴随冰雹的强对流天气,其融化层高度比0 ℃层高度低0.6 km左右。根据以上环境参数的分布特征、高低空垂直风切变的强弱变化可对3类强对流天气进行一定程度的区分。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, 106 severe convective cases with instantaneous wind force no less than 8 grade in the central region of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2016 are analyzed and their climatic characteristics are summarized. The distribution of environmental parameters and forecast thresholds for classified severe convective weather are studied by the form of box and whisker plots. The results are listed as below. The severe convective weather happens more in mountains, less in plains, more in the central region, and less in the northern and southwestern region. Severe convections frequently occur in June (especially mid-June), accompanied with ground convergence line as the main type of trigger mechanism. For thunderstorms, hail thunderstorms, and mixed type of heavy rainfall, environmental parameters such as the mean depression of the dew point between the ground and 850 hPa, 0-1 km and 0-3 km vertical wind shear, SWEAT, LI (lifting index), K index, storm relative helicity, and height index all have different minimum thresholds. The 0 ℃ layer which is prone to severe convective weather is about 4.1 km in the central region of Shandong Province; for the severe convective weather associated with hail, the melting layer is about 0.6 km lower than the 0 ℃ layer. According to the distribution of the above environmental parameters and the intensity change of upper-level and low-level vertical wind shear, the three types of severe convective weather can be distinguished to some extent.

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高晓梅,俞小鼎,马守强,杨萌,王世杰,周树华.鲁中地区强对流天气的气候特征及相关环境参数特征分析[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(3):43-54.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-04
  • 最后修改日期:2019-07-31
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-08-31
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