文章摘要
杨学斌,代玉田,吕伟绮.闪电发生的环境场特征及闪电活动的预报[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(3):96-102
闪电发生的环境场特征及闪电活动的预报
Environmental field characteristics and prediction of lightning activity
投稿时间:2018-08-17  修订日期:2018-12-25
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.03.011
中文关键词: 闪电活动  环境场特征  闪电活动预报
英文关键词: lightning activity  environment field characteristics  forecasting of lightning activity
基金项目:中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-040);山东省气象局科研项目(2015sdqxz03,2016sdqxz07,2013sdqx04)
作者单位
杨学斌,代玉田,吕伟绮 (德州市气象局山东 德州 253078) 
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中文摘要:
   利用2006—2015年6—8月章丘探空站逐日探空资料,计算了K指数、抬升指数、对流稳定度指数等6个环境参数,探讨了单个环境参数和多个环境参数组合与闪电活动的关系。结果表明:1)单个环境参数在一定数值范围内可作为闪电活动预报的指标,且较强的闪电活动更容易由大气的不稳定状态来预报;2)多个环境参数的组合可在一定程度上反映闪电活动的特征,闪电出现的概率随着达到大气不稳定临界值物理量参数个数的增多而增大,预报效果比单个参数更好;3)应用事件概率回归方法建立了闪电概率潜势预报方程,方程通过了α=0.01的显著性水平检验,通过检验和评估,闪电概率预报的TS评分达到78%,该方法的建立为闪电潜势预报提供了参考依据。
英文摘要:
   Based on the daily sounding data of Zhangqiu Sounding Station between June and August from 2006 to 2015, the 6 environmental parameters, such as K index, lifting index, and convective stability index, are calculated. The correlations between a single environmental parameter and lightning activities as well as correlations between combined environmental parameters and lightning activities are studied. The results are as follows. 1) A single environmental parameter within a range of values can be used as an indicator of lightning activities and stronger lightning activities are more likely to be predicted based on the atmospheric instability. 2) Combined environmental parameters can reflect the characteristics of lightning activities to some extent. With the increase of the number of physical parameters reaching critical values in the unstable state, the probability of lightning activities increases and the forecasting skills are better than that using a single parameter. 3) Regression estimation of event probability method is used to establish an equation of lightning probability forecast, which passes the significance test at 0.01 level, and the threat score of the probability forecast reaches 78%. The method provides reference for the lightning potential forecast.
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