文章摘要
朱汉青1,陈辰2,李楠2.日光温室番茄寡照低温灾害预警模型构建技术研究[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(3):132-149
日光温室番茄寡照低温灾害预警模型构建技术研究
Technical research on forewarning model of tomato’s low temperature stress by continuous shading in solar greenhouse
投稿时间:2019-04-08  修订日期:2019-04-30
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.03.015
中文关键词: 日光温室  番茄  寡照低温  预警模型  结构方程  层次分析
英文关键词: solar greenhouse  tomato  low temperature stress by continuous shading  forewarning model  SEM  AHP
基金项目:山东省气象局科研项目(2016sdqxm03)
作者单位
朱汉青1,陈辰2,李楠2 (1. 平原县气象局山东 平原 253100 2. 山东省气候中心山东 济南 250031) 
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中文摘要:
   利用2011—2015年(11月—次年5月)临淄、莱芜、利津的日光温室小气候和自动气象观测站逐日资料,采用结构方程(SEM)和层次分析(AHP)等方法,甄别了寡照低温灾害的致灾因子,构建了日光温室番茄寡照低温灾害预警模型。利用2016年11月1日—2017年5月31日山东临淄、莱芜、利津、平度、章丘及2015年11月1日—2016年5月31日天津静海、河北徐水日光温室小气候和自动气象观测站逐日观测资料对模型进行独立样本检验。结果表明:1)3 d以下(1~3 d)寡照低温灾害致灾因子包括前1日温室内最低气温、前1日温室外最低气温、前1日温室内最低20 cm地温、当日温室外最低气温、前1日日照时数,4 d以上(4~12 d)寡照低温灾害致灾因子包括前2日温室内最低气温、前1日温室内最低气温、前1日温室外最低气温和前2日温室外最低气温;2)应用山东临淄、莱芜等5地及天津静海、河北徐水日光温室主要生产季内3 d以下、4 d以上寡照低温灾害实际发生情况对模型预警结果进行检验,预警等级与实际低温等级完全一致的平均准确率分别为72%和74%,误差在1个等级以内的分别为99%和98%。
英文摘要:
   Based on daily data of micro-climate observation and automatic meteorological observation station at Linzi, Laiwu, and Lijin from 2011 to 2015 (from November to next May), the SEM (structural equation modeling) and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) are used to choose factors of causing tomato's low temperature stress by continuous shading in solar greenhouse and the forewarning model is built. The daily data of micro-climate observation and automatic meteorological observation station at Linzi, Laiwu,Lijin, Pingdu, and Zhangqiu of Shandong from 1 November 2016 to 31 May 2017 and Jinghai of Tianjin and Xushui of Hebei from 1 November 2015 to 31 May 2016 is utilized to test the forewarning model. The results are listed as below. 1) Factors of causing low temperature stress by continuous shading under three days (between one and three days) are minimum indoor air temperature one day ago, minimum outdoor air temperature one day ago, minimum indoor ground temperature at 20 cm one day ago, minimum outdoor air temperature on that day, and sunshine duration one day ago; while factors of causing low temperature stress by continuous shading over three days (between 4 and 12 days) are minimum indoor air temperature two days ago, minimum indoor air temperature one day ago, minimum outdoor air temperature one day ago, and minimum outdoor air temperature two days ago. 2) The data of low temperature stress by continuous shading in solar greenhouse under or over three days during main production season in Linzi, Laiwu, Lijin, Pingdu, and Zhangqiu of Shandong, Jinghai of Tianjin, and Xushui of Hebei is used to verify the forewarning results of the model. The average accuracy of forewarning grades in full accord with actual grades is 72% and 74%, respectively; the deviation within one grade is 99% and 98%, respectively.
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