文章摘要
赵秀兰.近50年登陆我国热带气旋时空特征及对农业影响研究综述[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(4):1-11
近50年登陆我国热带气旋时空特征及对农业影响研究综述
Research advances on spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical cyclones landfalling in China in the past 50 years and their impacts on agriculture
投稿时间:2019-11-07  修订日期:2019-11-27
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.04.001
中文关键词: 热带气旋  时空特征  农业  暴雨洪涝  灾害  影响
英文关键词: tropical cyclone  spatial and temporal characteristics  agriculture  rainstorm and flood  disaster  impact
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206018);国家气象中心2019年度气象现代化专项(3.1)
作者单位
赵秀兰 (国家气象中心北京 100081) 
摘要点击次数: 60
全文下载次数: 74
中文摘要:
      文章回顾并总结了近50年登陆我国热带气旋时空特征,并基于农业气象观测资料和部门数据信息初步探讨了登陆我国热带气旋对农业影响的时空特征。近50年登陆我国热带气旋登陆区域呈现出更为集中的趋势,年平均登陆强度、强台风数量均呈增加趋势;登陆频次华南呈减少趋势,华东则变化不明显;北上热带气旋略有上升趋势。我国受热带气旋影响地区的热带气旋降水大部呈波动下降的趋势;热带气旋平均风速最大值在全国呈现降低趋势。热带气旋暴雨和大风对农业的影响主要造成农田洪涝灾害、“雨洗禾花”、水土流失和耕地质量下降、作物倒伏和机械损伤等,其中农田洪涝灾害最重。我国农业生产受热带气旋影响存在较明显时空特征。秋季主要受影响区域为华南、江南东南部,大宗作物中晚稻受影响最大。盛夏受影响区域更为广泛,华南南部和东部、江南东部、江淮东部等地沿海受影响最重,南方受影响较大的大宗作物是早稻,其次为晚稻和一季稻等;盛夏季节热带气旋在带来暴雨洪涝和大风灾害的同时,也减少了南方盛夏季节性高温和干旱的发生;盛夏北上热带气旋因其带来的充沛降水对农业影响总体利大于弊。从农业生产防灾减灾的长效机制角度,在大数据基础上深入研究热带气旋对我国农业影响时空分布规律,积极发展避灾农业相关技术,是未来工作的重要方面。
英文摘要:
      In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical cyclones landfalling in China in the past 50 years are reviewed and summarized, and based on agricultural meteorological observation data and data from relevant departments, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of landfalling tropical cyclones on agriculture in China are discussed. In the past 50 years, the landfalling areas of tropical cyclones in China have shown a more concentrated trend with the annual average landfalling intensity and the number of strong typhoons increasing; the landfalling frequency in South China is decreasing while the change is not obvious in East China; the number of northward tropical cyclones is slightly increasing. Most of the tropical cyclone precipitation in the areas affected by tropical cyclones in China is decreasing with fluctuation, and the maximum average wind speed of tropical cyclones is decreasing in China. The impacts of tropical cyclone rainstorms and tropical cyclone gales on agriculture are mainly reflected as farmland flood disaster, “rain washing rice flowers”, water loss and soil erosion, decline of farmland quality, crop lodging, and mechanical damage, among which farmland flood disaster is the most serious. There are obvious spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of tropical cyclones on the agricultural production in China. In autumn, the main affected areas are South China and the southeast of Jiangnan, where late rice is the most seriously affected among staple crops. In midsummer, the affected areas are more extensive, the coastal areas in the south and east of South China, the east of Jiangnan, and the east of Jianghuai bear the most serious impact, and the most seriously affected crop is early rice, followed by late rice and one-season rice in the south of China; despite that tropical cyclones in midsummer bring about rainstorm, flood, and gale disasters, they reduce the occurrence of seasonal high temperature and drought in the south of China; in general, the advantages of northward tropical cyclones outweigh their disadvantages due to the accompanying abundant rainfall in midsummer. From the perspective of long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, it is an important aspect of future work to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the impacts of tropical cyclones on Chinese agriculture on the basis of big data, and actively develop related technologies for disaster avoidance agriculture.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭