| 王萌1，刘合香1,2，卢耀健1，李广桃1.基于模糊时间序列的华南台风登陆时最大风速极值预测模型[J].海洋气象学报,2019,39(4):68-74 |
| 基于模糊时间序列的华南台风登陆时最大风速极值预测模型 |
| Prediction model of extreme value of maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall over South China based on fuzzy time series |
| 投稿时间：2019-06-26 修订日期：2019-10-17 |
| DOI：10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2019.04.008 |
| 中文关键词: 模糊时间序列 模糊化 登陆时最大风速极值 华南台风 风速预测 |
| 英文关键词: fuzzy time series fuzzification maximum wind speed at landing typhoon over South China prediction of wind speed |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41665006，11561009）；广西重点研发计划项目（桂科AB19110020） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用1995—2017年登陆华南地区的台风登陆时最大风速极值数据，构建基于模糊时间序列的台风登陆时最大风速极值预测模型，并将该模型与传统时间序列ARIMA模型作对比。其预测结果表明，模糊时间序列的平均绝对误差、平均相对误差和均方根误差分别为2.621 m·s-1、0.066和2.727 m·s-1，预测的精确度明显高于传统时间序列ARIMA模型，同时也表明将模糊时间序列应用于登陆时最大风速极值的预测能够获得较理想的预测结果。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the extreme value data of the maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall over South China from 1995 to 2017, a prediction model of extreme values based on fuzzy time series is constructed, and the model is compared with the traditional time series ARIMA model. The prediction results show that the mean absolute error, mean relative error, and root mean square error of the fuzzy time series are 2.621 m·s-1, 0.066, and 2.727 m·s-1, respectively. The accuracy of the model is obviously higher than that of the traditional time series ARIMA model. At the same time, it shows that the application of fuzzy time series to the prediction of extreme values of the maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall can obtain better prediction results. |
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