基于统一高度Cressman方法的地面2m气温客观分析
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第一作者:朱文刚,男,硕士,工程师,主要从事数值天气预报、资料同化和客观方法研究应用,zhu122812@163.com。 通信作者:李昌义,男,高级工程师,主要从事数值天气预报、资料同化和客观方法研究应用,lcyjn@163.com。

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山东省气象局重点科研项目(2015sdqxz01,2018sdqxz06)


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Objective analysis of 2-m surface air temperature based on Cressman method with elevation correction
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    摘要:

    针对离散站点资料格点化的业务需求及 Cressman 方法在地形复杂区域客观分析存在的问 题,利用山东及周边省自动气象站观测的 2 m气温和 ECMWF预报的海上 2 m气温,结合山东省中尺度数值预报位温递减率、90 m分辨率 SRTM高程数据,采用统一高度 Cressman 方法对山东省地面2 m气温进行客观分析,生成了逐 1 h、0.01°×0.01°高分辨率的地面 2 m气温格点产品。结果表明,统一高度 Cressman 方法的客观分析格点产品在地形复杂区域的分析更合理,月平均误差基本在±1 ℃以内,鲁中山区地形高度较高区域月平均误差略大于鲁西北、鲁西南、鲁东南和山东半岛等地的平原地区,气温偏低的10、11、12月温度准确率均略低于 5、6、7、8、9 月;2020 年 5—12 月平均误差为-0.0039 ℃,平均绝对误差为 0.1469 ℃,均方根误差为 0.3597 ℃,2 ℃以内准确率为 99.64%,1 ℃以内准确率为 98.24%,各项检验指标均较优。总体上统一高度 Cressman 客观分析格点产品质量接近中国气象局陆面数据同化系统( HRCLDAS )高分辨率格点实况产品。

    Abstract:

    In view of the operational requirements of gridded data at discrete stations and the problems of objective analysis of the Cressman method in areas with complex terrains, based on the 2-m air temperature observed by ground automatic weather stations in and around Shandong, the 2-m air temperature over sea surface predicted by ECMWF , the declining rate of potential temperature by the mesoscale numerical prediction of Shandong, and SRTM elevation data with 90 m resolution, this paper used Cressman method with elevation correction to objectively analyze the 2-m surface air temperature in Shandong, and generated high-resolution ( 0.01°×0.01° ) hourly gridded products of 2-m surface air temperature. The results show the analysis of gridded products using the Cressman method with elevation correction is more reasonable in areas with complex terrains. The monthly mean error is basically within 1 ℃ and the monthly mean error in the mountainous areas of central Shandong is slightly larger than that in the plain areas of the northwest, the southwest, and the southeast of Shandong and Shandong Peninsula. The temperature accuracy in October, November, and December with low temperature is slightly lower than that in May, June, July, August, and September. Each of the test indicators of the products from May to December 2020 performs well, with a mean error of -0.0039 ℃, a mean absolute error of 0.1469 ℃, a root-mean-square error of 0.3597 ℃, an accuracy rate within 2 ℃ of 99.64%, and an accuracy rate within 1 ℃ of 98.24%. In general, the quality of gridded products using the Cressman objective analysis with elevation correction is close to that of HRCLDAS ( High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System ).

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朱文刚 ,李昌义 ,车军辉.基于统一高度Cressman方法的地面2m气温客观分析[J].海洋气象学报,2021,41(2):138-148.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-03
  • 出版日期: 2021-05-31

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