秋季渤海海效应降雨的统计特征及形成机理
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杨成芳,女,博士,研究员级高级工程师,主要从事天气预报业务及降雪研究,cf_yang70@hotmail.com。

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P426.62

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国家自然科学基金项目(41975055)


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Statistical characteristics and formation mechanism of Bohai ocean-effect rain in autumn
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    摘要:

    利用综合观测资料统计分析了1999—2020年秋季31次渤海海效应降雨过程的基本特征,通过典型个例分析揭示了海效应降雨的形成机理,并与渤海海效应降雪进行了比较。结果表明:(1)秋季渤海海效应降雨发生在10月中旬至11月,以11月中上旬发生频率最高;10月为纯雨,11月可产生纯雨,也有雨转雨夹雪(雪)或雨雪共存的天气过程;海效应降雨分布在山东半岛北部沿海地区,过程降雨量均为小雨,持续时间不超过1 d。(2)海效应降雨发生时的冷空气强度比海效应降雪弱,降雨时山东半岛850 hPa的温度10月在-1 ℃左右,11月在-6 ℃左右;11月发生雨转雨夹雪或雪时,850 hPa的温度一般为-9~-8 ℃,地面气温集中在2~4 ℃之间。(3)典型较明显的渤海海效应降雨过程环流形势表现为500 hPa冷涡、850 hPa西北冷平流和地面冷高压,强冷空气入侵渤海和山东半岛,790 hPa以下北部沿海地区产生浅层对流不稳定,风向风速辐合触发不稳定能量而产生海效应降雨;强海效应降雨时段北部沿海地区对流层低层存在偏东北风与西北风之间的切变线及明显的风速辐合,最大雷达反射率因子为45~50 dBZ。(4)渤海海效应降雨的环流形势、水汽来源、热力、动力及雷达径向速度特征与海效应降雪基本相同,主要差异在于海面温度和冷空气强度。渤海海效应降雨的预报关键期为10月下旬至11月。

    Abstract:

    Based on comprehensive observation data, the basic characteristics of 31 Bohai ocean-effect rain events in autumn from 1999 to 2020 are statistically analyzed, and the formation mechanism of ocean-effect rain is revealed through the analysis of typical ocean-effect rain events. Moreover, the comparative analysis on Bohai ocean-effect rain and ocean-effect snow is conducted. The results are as follows. (1) Bohai ocean-effect rain in autumn usually occurs between mid-October and November, with the highest frequency in early-to-mid November. Only rain occurs in October while rain, sleet, or snow is possible in November. Bohai ocean-effect rain events are distributed in the northern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula, and the rainfall during the event is light rain, which lasts no more than 1 d. (2) The intensity of cold air during ocean-effect rain is weaker than that during ocean-effect snow. During rain, the temperature at 850 hPa over Shandong Peninsula is about -1 ℃ in October and -6 ℃ in November. When rain turns to sleet or snow in November, the temperature at 850 hPa is generally between -9 and -8 ℃, and the surface temperature is between 2 and 4 ℃. (3) The circulation pattern of typical Bohai ocean-effect rain event is manifested as cold vortex at 500 hPa, northwest cold advection at 850 hPa, and cold high pressure system at surface. Strong cold air invades Bohai and Shandong Peninsula, causing shallow convective instability in the northern coastal areas below 790 hPa, and the convergence of wind direction and speed triggers unstable energy to produce ocean-effect rain. During the period of heavy ocean-effect rain, there is a shear line between northeast wind and northwest wind in the lower troposphere in the northern coastal areas, and the wind speed convergence is obvious. The maximum radar reflectivity is between 45 and 50 dBZ. (4) The characteristics of circulation pattern, water vapor source, thermal conditions, dynamic conditions, and radar radial velocity of Bohai ocean-effect rain are basically the same as those of ocean-effect snow, but the main differences lie in sea surface temperature and intensity of cold air. The critical period for forecasting Bohai ocean-effect rain is from late October to November.

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杨成芳,曹玥瑶.秋季渤海海效应降雨的统计特征及形成机理[J].海洋气象学报,2022,42(1):12-22.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-03-28
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-28

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