文章摘要
刘倩,孙小淇.青岛港潮汐的调和分析与预报[J].海洋气象学报,2022,42(2):99-106
青岛港潮汐的调和分析与预报
Harmonic analysis and forecast of tides in Qingdao Port
  
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2022.02.011
中文关键词: 青岛港口  T_TIDE 潮汐分析工具  调和分析  潮汐预报
英文关键词: Qingdao Port  tidal analysis tool T_TIDE  harmonic analysis  tidal prediction
基金项目:山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019PA007)
作者单位
刘倩 青岛大学数学与统计学院,山东 青岛 266071 
孙小淇 青岛大学数学与统计学院,山东 青岛 266071 
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中文摘要:
   用 T_TIDE 潮汐分析工具对青岛港口2019 年1—12 月逐时潮高资料进行不同时段的调和分析,计算其调和常数,并总结该港口潮汐特征。从 2019 年全年的调和分析结果中选择不同分潮建立调和预报模型,对2019 年1 月的潮高进行预测,通过相对误差、判定系数结果分析,确定最优调和预报模型。结果表明:青岛港口为正规半日潮港,以太阴主要半日分潮 M2分潮为主,其次为太阳主要半日分潮 S2 、太阴主要椭率半日分潮 N2 、太阴-太阳赤纬全日分潮 K1和太阴赤纬全日分潮 O1等分潮;对比不同时间长度的分潮振幅及平均海平面,可知其与用于调和分析的潮位资料长度几乎无关。分潮由5 个增加至24 个可明显改进预报效果,再增加几乎没有改进,故选用24 个分潮为最优的调和预报模型。为验证模型具有良好的实用性,对五号码头的实测潮汐数据进行分析预报,进而可知建立的模型能够较好地预报青岛港附近海域的潮汐变化。
英文摘要:
   The tidal analysis tool T_TIDE is used to harmonically analyze the hourly tide height data ofQingdao Port from January to December 2019. The harmonic constant is calculated and used to analyzethe tidal characteristics of the port. Afterwards,different tidal components are selected from the results ofthe harmonic analysis in the whole year of 2019 to establish a harmonic forecast model,which is utilizedto predict the tide height in January 2019. Through analyzing the results of relative errors and coefficientsof determination,an optimal harmonic forecast model is determined. The result shows the tide in this areais characterized by regular semi-diurnal tide,which is dominated by M2 tidal component and followed byS2 ,N2 ,K1 ,and O1 tidal components. Comparing the amplitude of tidal component and average sea levelof different time lengths,it can be seen that it has almost nothing to do with the length of the tide leveldata used for harmonic analysis. The prediction accuracy tends to increase when the tidal componentsincrease from 5 to 24,while there is little further improvement by including more tidal components in theprediction,so 24 tidal components are selected for the optimal harmonic forecast model. In order to verifythe practicability of the model,the measured tidal data of Pier 5 are analyzed and used for prediction.Furthermore,it can be seen that the model can better predict the tidal changes in the sea areas near Qingdao Port.
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