文章摘要
吴彩铭,任福民,朱婧.热带气旋灾害预评估模型研究回顾[J].海洋气象学报,2022,42(3):13-22
热带气旋灾害预评估模型研究回顾
Review of researches on pre-assessment models for tropical cyclone disaster
  
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2022.03.002
中文关键词: 热带气旋灾害  预评估  模型  回顾
英文关键词: tropical cyclone disaster  pre-assessment  model  review
基金项目:国家重点研究发展计划项目(2019YFC1510205);国家自然科学基金项目(41675042)
作者单位
吴彩铭 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081 
任福民 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081 
朱婧 厦门市海峡气象开放重点实验室,福建 厦门 361012 
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中文摘要:
   热带气旋所引发的暴雨、大风、风暴潮以及由此造成的衍生灾害对人身安全、基础设施、财产、农业生产活动均可造成严重影响。因此,做好灾前预评估对于提出防御对策、指导启动相应防灾预案及科学合理开展防灾工作等至关重要。在明确“预评估”定义后,将以往国内外研究中与热带气旋灾害预评估相关的模型分为统计模型、动力模型和动力统计模型三类进行回顾总结,并对其中一些典型例子进行详细介绍。最后,针对模型研究及业务开展现状和存在的问题,给出一定建议、意见和展望。深入了解各种热带气旋灾害预评估模型的建立思想,对今后逐步提升风险评估与防控技术的精细化、客观化、定量化水平具有重要指示意义。
英文摘要:
   Tropical cyclone-induced rainstorm, gale, and storm surge and their derivative disasters may seriously affect human safety, infrastructure, property, and agricultural production activities. For this reason, it is crucial to make pre-assessment before disaster in order to put forward defense countermeasures, guide corresponding disaster prevention plans, and carry out scientific and reasonable disaster prevention work. Based on the definition of pre-assessment, this paper reviews and summarizes the models related to tropical cyclone disaster pre-assessment and divides them into statistical model, dynamic model, and dynamic-statistical model. Then some typical examples are introduced in detail. Finally, some suggestions and prospects are given according to the current situation and problems of the existing model research and operation. Further understanding the principles of tropical cyclone disaster pre-assessment models can provide reference for gradually improving the techniques of refined, objective, and quantitative risk assessment and prevention and control.
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