文章摘要
李兆奇,赵桂香,赵彩萍.山西近40年极端降水特征分析[J].海洋气象学报,2022,42(3):88-98
山西近40年极端降水特征分析
Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in Shanxi from 1979 to 2018
  
DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2022.03.009
中文关键词: 极端降水  特征  贡献率  变化趋势  M-K检验
英文关键词: extreme precipitation  characteristics  contribution rate  variation trend  M-K test
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41475050);山西省气象局科研项目(SXKMSQH20217122)
作者单位
李兆奇 太原市气象局,山西 太原 030082 
赵桂香 山西省气象台,山西 太原 030002 
赵彩萍 太原市气象局,山西 太原 030082 
摘要点击次数: 283
全文下载次数: 150
中文摘要:
   利用山西108个国家级地面气象观测站1979—2018年日降水量资料,采用百分位法定义极端降水事件,应用气候趋势系数、Mann-Kendall (M-K)检验等方法,研究山西极端降水特征及其变化规律。结果表明:(1)山西极端降水出现在3—10月之间,发生频次呈现“山区多、盆地少”的特点,平均强度表现为“北中部小、南部大”的空间分布特征。(2)山西极端降水持续时间以1 d为主,局地性特征明显,发生大范围极端降水事件的概率较低。(3)近40年,山西极端降水事件呈明显增多趋势,影响范围不断扩大,强度略有增强,没有突变发生。各区域极端降水的长期变化差异较大;北部强度显著增强,范围明显扩大且在1986年发生突变;中部极端降水日数和强度显著增多增强,并分别在2001、1992年发生突变;南部极端降水变化趋势微弱。
英文摘要:
   Based on the daily precipitation data of 108 national meteorological observation stations in Shanxi from 1979 to 2018, the percentile method is adopted to define extreme precipitation events, and methods such as climate trend coefficient and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test are used to study the characteristics and variation patterns of extreme precipitation in Shanxi. The results are shown as follows. (1) The extreme precipitation in Shanxi occurs between March and October and is distributed more in mountainous areas and less in basins, while the average intensity is small in the central and northern areas and large in the southern areas. (2) The extreme precipitation in Shanxi mainly lasts 1 d with apparent regional characteristics, and the probability of large-scale extreme precipitation events is low. (3) Over the recent 40 years, the number of extreme precipitation events in Shanxi shows a significantly increasing trend, the range of impact continuously enlarges, the intensity slightly increases, and there are no abrupt changes. For each area, the variation of extreme precipitation over a long time span differs greatly; in the northern areas, the intensity significantly increases, the range markedly expandes, and abrupt changes occurred in 1986; in the central areas, the days of extreme precipitation present significant increase with the intensity notably enhanced, and abrupt changes occurred in 2001 and 1992, respectively; the variation trend of extreme precipitation in the southern areas is weak.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭