Abstract:The main characteristics of Typhoon Muifa (2212), the difficulties in the track forecast, and the characteristics of forecast errors are analyzed in this paper. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Typhoon Muifa, characterized by high landfall frequency and strong intensity, is the first typhoon to make landfall 4 times in different provinces (cities), and is the strongest landfalling typhoon in 2022, causing long-lasting and wide-range wind and rainfall in East China and Northeast China. (2) The medium- to long-term track forecast in the early stage of typhoon lifetime is one of the difficulties in track forecast, and there is obvious deviation between the model results and observations in the long-term forecast of the dominated weather systems that impact typhoon, so timely inspection and correction of the model is very important for the forecast adjustment. (3) Under the scenario of binary typhoons or multi-vortex, the dispersion of the ensemble forecast is large, and the track forecast over land for Muifa is slower and westward compared with the observation. The intensity and position differences of Typhoon Nanmadol on the east side have a significant impact on the track of Muifa. (4) The along-track error in the process of extratropical transition is the primary source of track forecast error, especially for the maximum error. Paying attention to whether the typhoon is undergoing extratropical transition or not can be a reference for adjusting the moving speed in the track forecast. In the future, conducting multi-model cross-cutting and real-time inspection and developing a correction technology for the track forecast of recurved extratropical transition typhoons based on ensemble forecast could support for subjective forecast.