2020年5月山东强对流天气特点及成因
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侯淑梅,女,正高级工程师,研究方向为强对流等灾害性天气预报及机理分析,shmh0808@163.com。

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P458.2

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山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD010,ZR2022MD088,ZR2023MD118);山东省气象局精准预报技术创新团队项目(SDCXTD2021-1);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-041);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-072);山东省气象局科研项目(2022sdqxz11,2016sdqxz01);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM202105)


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Characteristics and causes of severe convective weather in Shandong in May 2020
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    摘要:

    2020年5月山东共出现13次强对流天气过程,其中8次出现冰雹,共15市(93.8%)81站(65.9%)出现降雹,单站最大降雹次数为4次。10次出现10级以上雷暴大风,5次出现短时强降水,强对流次数之多、范围之广、强度之大、灾害之重为近10年少见。其中,“5 ·17”强对流天气过程最为剧烈,其冰雹范围之广非常罕见,最大冰雹直径为4.5 cm,最大风速达36.6 m ·s-1(12级),最大雨强达56.9 mm ·h-1。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第五代大气再分析数据集(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)和加密自动气象观测站、多普勒天气雷达、闪电定位等资料,对2020年5月山东强对流天气特点及强对流多发的原因进行分析,并以“5 ·17”强对流天气过程为例,对雷达回波特征和风暴内的垂直运动进行剖析。结果表明:(1)副热带高压强度偏强,一方面有利于其外围的西南暖湿气流到达山东,另一方面阻挡西风带系统,导致前倾槽强度偏强,长时间维持在山东上空;500 hPa异常偏强的暖高压脊前西北气流携带的冷空气叠加在850 hPa偏强的暖温度脊上空,造成山东上空长时间为位势不稳定大气层结。(2)在上述有利的天气背景下,山东上空水汽充沛,对流有效位能偏大,冀鲁豫3省交界处气旋式辐合偏强,鲁中地区稳定存在一条辐合线,容易触发产生强对流天气,造成山东5月强对流天气频发。(3)对流风暴高度组织化、区域性的超级单体群以及一条长度超过500 km的强飑线是造成“5 ·17”强对流的直接原因,对流风暴内部的上升速度高达28 m ·s-1

    Abstract:

    There are 13 severe convective weather in Shandong in May 2020, including 8 hail processes occurring at 81 stations (65.9%) in 15 cities (93.8%) in total, with a maximum station-hail-hit number of 4 times. There are 10 thunderstorm gales above Beaufort scale 10 and 5 short-time heavy precipitation. The frequency, coverage, intensity, and severity of disasters have been rare over the last decade. The “5 ·17” convective weather process is the most intense, and its wide range of hail is very rare. The largest hail diameter is 4.5 cm, the maximum wind speed is 36.6 m ·s-1 (Beaufort scale 12), and the maximum rainfall intensity is 56.9 mm ·h-1. Based on ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and data of intensive automatic meteorological observation stations, Doppler weather radar, and lightning location, the characteristics of severe convective weather in Shandong in May 2020 and the causes of frequent occurrence are analyzed. Taking the “5 ·17” severe convective weather process as an example, the characteristics of radar echoes and the vertical motion in the storm are analyzed. The results are shown below. (1) The stronger subtropical high not only favors the southwest warm moist airflow reaching Shandong, but also obstructs the westerly system, resulting in the forward trough getting intensified and maintaining over Shandong for a long time. The cold air carried by the northwest airflow in front of the 500-hPa enormously stronger warm ridge is superimposed over the 850-hPa unusually stronger warm temperature ridge, leading to an unstable atmospheric stratification over Shandong continuously. (2) Under the above favorable weather background, the water vapor over Shandong is abundant, CAPE (convective available potential energy) is large, the cyclonic convergence is strong at the junction of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces, and there is a stable convergence line in the middle region of Shandong, which is easy to trigger severe convective weather, resulting in frequent severe convective weather in Shandong in May. (3) The highly organized convective storm, regional supercell groups, and a strong squall line with its length more than 500 km are the direct causes of “5 ·17” strong convection. The ascending velocity inside the storm reaches up to 28 m ·s-1.

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侯淑梅,唐巧玲,史茜,王俊,高帆.2020年5月山东强对流天气特点及成因[J].海洋气象学报,2023,43(4):47-61.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-01
  • 最后修改日期:2022-11-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-03
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