2203号台风“暹芭”的路径预报偏差及思考
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郭乙莹,女,本科,助理工程师,主要从事气象预报技术研究工作,guoyy@cma.gov.cn。

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P444;P458.124

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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3004200);上海台风研究基金项目(TFJJ202204);国家自然科学基金项目(42375010);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放基金项目(2022LASW-B09)


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Track forecast deviation and thinking of Typhoon Chaba (2203)
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    摘要:

    针对2022年第3号台风“暹芭”的主要特点和预报难点问题进行分析和研究,得出如下主要结论:“暹芭”是2022年首个登陆我国的台风,在华南登陆减弱后,其残余环流继续北上,与西风带系统共同影响我国华中、华东、华北及东北等地的部分地区;累计雨量大、风雨强度强;台风外围出现多个龙卷。主要的预报难点问题有:弱台风准确定位问题表现突出,引进新的卫星产品有助于提高定位精度;72 h路径预报的偏差问题主要是由于模式对东台风、大陆高压和南压高压、西风急流等关键系统的预报偏差引起;台风登陆后北上长时间维持(含减弱后的残涡)的预报问题需关注持续的水汽通道和高层出流条件变化。

    Abstract:

    The main characteristics and forecast difficulties of Typhoon Chaba (2203) are analyzed and studied, and the main conclusions are as follows. Chaba is the first typhoon to make landfall in China in 2022. The typhoon lands in South China and weakens, and then its remnants continue to move northward and affect Central China, East China, North China, and Northeast China together with the westerly trough. The accumulated rainfall is large and the wind is strong. There are several tornadoes around the typhoon. There are three main difficulties in forecasting. First, the problem of accurate positioning of weak typhoons is obvious, and the introduction of new satellite products can improve the positioning accuracy. Second, the track deviation of the 72-h forecast is mainly caused by the models’ inaccurate forecast of key systems, such as the east one of binary typhoons, continental high, South Asia high, and westerly jet. Third, the continuous adjustment of water vapor channel and high-level outflow conditions requires special attention in the prediction of the typhoon’s long-term maintenance after landing (including the weakened residual vortex).

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郭乙莹,周冠博,黄奕武,吕心艳,王皘,张进,许映龙.2203号台风“暹芭”的路径预报偏差及思考[J].海洋气象学报,2024,(1):97-107.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-01-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-05
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