基于降水适宜度的金银花气象指数保险纯费率厘定
作者:
作者单位:

1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东 济南 250031 ;2.临沂市气象局,山东 临沂 276004 ;3.山东农业大学,山东 泰安 271018

作者简介:

吕学梅,lxm234@126.com。

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中图分类号:

P49

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD2301301);山东省气象局气象榜单类专项(2023SDBD14)


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Determination of pure premium rate for honeysuckle meteorological index insurance based on precipitation suitability
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031 , China ; 2.Linyi Meteorological Service, Linyi 276004 , China ; 3.Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018 , China

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    摘要:

    利用临沂市平邑县1998—2024年金银花产量和气象资料,以金银花降水适宜度为气象指数,构建金银花降水适宜度-减产率模型,基于拟合优度检验法确定减产率概率和等级,进行金银花保险纯费率厘定。结果表明:(1)受气象条件年际差异影响,平邑金银花2001—2024年气象产量波动较大,减产年概率达41.7%。(2)金银花降水适宜度-减产率最佳关系为二次多项式回归模型,金银花降水适宜度越小,金银花减产率越大,当降水适宜度为0时,金银花减产率最大,达68.874%。(3)利用减产率分布模型法和经典燃烧分析法厘定平邑金银花保险纯费率为4.01%,可为农业保险产品设计提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The honeysuckle yield data and meteorological data in Pingyi, Linyi from 1998 to 2024 are used to construct a model for precipitation suitability-yield reduction rate of honeysuckle with precipitation suitability as the meteorological index. Based on the goodness-of-fit test method, the probability and grade of yield reduction rate are determined, and then the pure premium rate for honeysuckle insurance is determined. The results are shown below. (1) Due to the interannual differences in meteorological conditions, the meteorological yield of honeysuckle in Pingyi fluctuates greatly from 2001 to 2024, and the annual yield reduction rate is 41.7%. (2) The best relationship between precipitation suitability and yield reduction rate of honeysuckle is reflected by a quadratic polynomial regression model. The smaller the precipitation suitability of honeysuckle, the greater the yield reduction rate of honeysuckle. When the precipitation suitability is 0, the yield reduction rate of honeysuckle reaches its maximum, namely 68.874%. (3) The pure premium rate for honeysuckle insurance in Pingyi is determined to be 4.01% by using the distribution model for yield reduction rate and the classical combustion analysis method, which could provide scientific basis for the design of agricultural insurance products.

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吕学梅,刘可欣,邢晋,等.基于降水适宜度的金银花气象指数保险纯费率厘定[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(4):78-86.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-17
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-27
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