CMA-CPEFS模式产品在贵州飞机增雨作业中的适用性检验
作者:
作者单位:

1.贵州省气象灾害防御中心,贵州 贵阳 550081 ;2.贵州省气象台,贵州 贵阳 550002

作者简介:

许弋,1042133905@qq.com。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P481

基金项目:

贵州省科技支撑计划项目(黔科合SY字〔2011〕3114);贵州省气象局省市联合科研基金项目(黔气科合SS-QN〔2024〕09号)


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Applicability test of CMA-CPEFS model products in aircraft-based rain enhancement operations in Guizhou
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Guizhou Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Guiyang 550081 , China ; 2.Guizhou Meteorological Observatory, Guiyang 550002 , China

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    摘要:

    针对贵州复杂地形区人工增雨作业中云模式预报产品的适用性难题,基于中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)人工影响天气中心研发的云降水显示预报系统(Cloud and Precipitation Explicit Forecasting System,简记为“CMA-CPEFS”)模式的定量预报产品,采用地基雷达、静止卫星、探空廓线等多源观测数据融合诊断方法,对2020—2021年贵州地区30次飞机增雨个例的模式预报性能开展检验。结果表明:(1)模式云系相态判别的准确率达93%(28/30),作业高度层与催化剂类型配置的匹配度分别为93%(28/30)和100%(30/30),证实模式对云物理参量场的表征能力达到业务实用标准。(2)0 ℃层高度出现系统性正偏差,平均偏差误差为+108 m,通过95%的置信水平检验,置信区间为(+108±97) m,p<0.01,平均绝对误差为+205 m;云系水平移向预报准确率为80%,略高于云系水平移速准确率(77%)。(3)增雨潜力区TS(threat score)评分达0.67,但存在显著空间外延偏差(预报范围较实况扩大18%±3%),与主观分析误差和模式过高预估云水含量(偏差为+0.15 g·m-3)显著相关(R2=0.82,p<0.001)。此研究可为分布在贵州的喀斯特地貌区人工影响天气数值模式优化提供关键物理约束。

    Abstract:

    This study aims to study the applicability of cloud model forecasting products in artificial rain enhancement operations in complex terrain areas of Guizhou based on the quantitative forecasting products of CMA-CPEFS (China Meteorological Administration-Cloud and Precipitation Explicit Forecasting System) model developed by CMA Weather Modification Centre. The fusion diagnosis method using multi-source observation data of ground-based radar, geostationary satellite and sounding profile is adopted to test the model forecasting performance of 30 cases of aircraft-based rain enhancement in Guizhou from 2020 to 2021. The results are as follows. (1) The model accuracy of distinguishing cloud phase is 93% (28/30), and the matching degrees of the operation height layer and the catalyst type configuration are 93% (28/30) and 100% (30/30), respectively, confirming that the model’s ability to characterize the cloud physical parameters meets the operational standard. (2) There is a systematic positive deviation in the height of 0 ℃ layer, the mean bias error is +108 m, which passes the 95% confidence level test, and the confidence interval is (+108±97) m with p<0.01. The mean absolute error is +205 m. The forecast accuracy of cloud system’s horizontal moving direction is 80%, slightly higher than that of cloud system’s horizontal moving speed (77%). (3) The threat score (TS) of the potential area for rain enhancement is 0.67, but there is a significant deviation in spatial expansion (the forecasting range is 18%±3% larger than that of the actual situation), which is significantly correlated (R2=0.82, p<0.001) with the subjective analysis error and overestimation of cloud water content by the model (the deviation is +0.15 g·m-3). The results provide key physical constraints for the optimization of numerical models for weather modification in the karst landform areas of Guizhou.

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许弋,李枚曼,彭雪昶,等. CMA-CPEFS模式产品在贵州飞机增雨作业中的适用性检验[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(4):87-96.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-27
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