2021年春末夏初我国南方强对流频发的天气气候背景分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.山西省气象科学研究所,山西 太原, 030002 ;2.中国气象局五台山云物理野外科学试验基地,山西 太原, 030002 ;3.山东省气象服务中心,山东 济南, 250031 ;4.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东 济南, 250031

作者简介:

高媛,492498134@qq.com。

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中图分类号:

P458.2

基金项目:

山东省气象局科研项目(2024sdqxm07);湖北省气象局科研项目(2022Q05)


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Weather and climate background analysis of frequent severe convections in southern China in late spring and early summer of 2021
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Shanxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Taiyuan 030002 , China ; 2.Cloud Physics Scientific Experiment Base in Mount Wutai of China Meteorological Administration, Taiyuan 030002 , China ; 3.Shandong Meteorological Service Center, Jinan 250031 , China ; 4.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031 , China

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    摘要:

    2021年春末夏初我国多地先后出现强对流天气,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。其中,5月10—16日我国南方(25.0°~32.5°N,112.5°~122.5°E)强对流天气尤为频发。通过分析2021年5月10—16日大气环流异常特征及其相应的动力、热力、水汽条件,从大尺度环境场方面揭示该阶段南方强对流天气频发的原因。结果表明,该阶段强对流天气的频发与大尺度环境场的异常密切相关。欧亚500 hPa高度距平场自西北向东南呈现出“+、-、+”的分布特征,其中乌拉尔山和东亚沿岸为正距平,贝加尔湖至巴尔喀什湖一带为负距平。东亚沿岸的正距平与西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称“副高”)偏北偏强相对应。副高北侧的异常西南暖湿气流有利于我国南方地区上升运动的发展和不稳定层结的建立;异常暖平流的减压作用有利于我国南方低层辐合系统频繁发生,为强对流天气提供了触发条件。此外,强烈的垂直风切变亦是强对流系统发展的有利动力条件之一。进一步分析发现,对流层上层存在一支自欧亚高纬地区向东南方向传播的异常波作用通量,表明该阶段的波列型环流异常与罗斯贝波能量频散密切相关。由此可见,中高纬大气动力过程在此次南方频发强对流事件中扮演了重要角色。

    Abstract:

    In the late spring and early summer of 2021, many areas in China experienced severe convections, causing heavy casualties and property losses, especially in southern China (25.0°~32.5°N, 112.5°~122.5°E) from 10 to 16 May. Through analyzing the features of the atmospheric circulation anomalies from 10 to 16 May 2021, as well as the associated dynamical, thermal and moisture conditions, the study explores the causes of frequent severe convections in southern China from the perspective of large-scale environment. The results show that the frequent severe convections are closely related to large-scale circulation anomalies. At 500 hPa over Eurasia, the geopotential height anomalies exhibit a northwest-southeast oriented wave train pattern with a “+,-,+” distribution. Along this wave train, the Ural Mountains and the coastal areas of East Asia are dominated by positive height anomalies, while the areas from Lake Baikal to Balkhash Lake are occupied by negative height anomalies. The positive anomalies along the coastal areas of East Asia correspond to an intensified and northward shifted western Pacific subtropical high (shorted as WPSH). On the one hand, the anomalous southwest warm and moist airflow to the north of WPSH is beneficial to the development of ascending motion as well as the establishment of unstable stratification in southern China. On the other hand, the pressure decrease resulting from the anomalous warm advection is favorable for the frequent occurrence of low-level convergence systems in southern China, which provides triggering conditions for severe convections. In addition, the strong vertical wind shear formed between high-and low-level jets is also one of the favorable dynamic conditions for the development of severe convections. Further analysis indicates that there is a southeastward propagating anomalous wave activity flux, which originates from the high latitudes of Eurasia, suggesting that the wave train-like circulation anomaly is closely associated with the dispersion of the Rossby wave energy. Therefore, the atmospheric dynamical process in mid-high latitudes plays an important role in the frequent severe convections in southern China.

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高媛,甘玉婷.2021年春末夏初我国南方强对流频发的天气气候背景分析[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(6):95-105.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-19
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