2024—2025年江淮梅雨期CMA-GFS-V4.2模式降水预报效果评估
作者:
作者单位:

1.上海中心气象台,上海 200030 ;2.中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京 100081 ;3.贵州省生态与农业气象中心,贵州 贵阳 550002

作者简介:

第一作者:张欣,高级工程师,jingshuiliushen784@126.com。
通信作者:漆梁波,正高级工程师,qlb1999@hotmail.com。

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基金项目:

中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J020);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-041);黔科合基础MS〔2025〕320


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Evaluation of precipitation forecast performance of CMA-GFS-V4.2 over the Changjiang-Huaihe region during the 2024-2025 Meiyu periods
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030 , China ; 2.CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, Beijing 100081 , China ; 3.Guizhou Ecological Meteorology and Agrometeorology Center, Guiyang 550002 , China

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    摘要:

    以ECMWF-HRES模式为对照,对2024—2025年江淮梅雨期业务运行的CMA-GFS-V4.0与CMA-GFS-V4.2的12~84 h时效预报进行对比检验评估。结果表明:(1)2024年梅雨期,CMA-GFS-V4.2对500 hPa大尺度环流的刻画与CMA-GFS-V4.0总体一致,对东亚急流位置的模拟有所改进,但在850 hPa低空急流预报中存在强度偏强、范围偏大的问题。(2)在分级降水预报及降水空间分布方面,CMA-GFS-V4.2较CMA-GFS-V4.0改进明显。12~84 h检验结果显示,尽管中雨和大雨量级存在空报率(false alarm rate,FAR)升高问题,但对小雨、暴雨及大暴雨量级的预报性能较CMA-GFS-V4.0提升显著,TS评分(threat score)提高,Bias评分更接近1,相关系数、标准差及中心均方根误差(centered root mean square error,CRMSE)等统计指标整体改善。与ECMWF-HRES相比,CMA-GFS-V4.2在12~84 h时效均对大暴雨及以上量级极端降水的预报表现更优。2025年梅雨期业务运行中,CMA-GFS-V4.2预报性能稳定,在暴雨及以上强降水预报中整体优于ECMWF-HRES。(3)CMA-GFS-V4.2能较好刻画梅雨期主要强降水中心,缓解了旧版本在东部沿海海陆交界区的虚假降水带和空报问题,但对大尺度降水的预报偏弱,有待进一步优化。

    Abstract:

    Using the ECMWF-HRES model as a benchmark, this study conducts a comparative verification and evaluation of 12-84 h operational forecasts produced by the CMA-GFS-V4.0 and CMA-GFS-V4.2 models over the Changjiang-Huaihe region during the 2024-2025 Meiyu periods. The results are as follows. (1) The depiction of the 500-hPa large-scale circulation during the 2024 Meiyu period by CMA-GFS-V4.2 is generally consistent with that of CMA-GFS-V4.0, with improved simulation of the East Asian jet position; however, the 850-hPa low-level jet forecasts still exhibit overestimated intensity and excessively large spatial extent. (2) In terms of graded precipitation forecasts and the spatial distribution of precipitation, CMA-GFS-V4.2 shows notable improvements over CMA-GFS-V4.0. The verification results for the 12-84 h forecasts indicate that although the false alarm rates increase for moderate and heavy precipitation categories, the forecast performance for light rain, rainstorms and severe rainstorms is significantly enhanced relative to CMA-GFS-V4.0, with higher threat scores (TS), Bias values closer to 1, and overall improvements in statistical metrics including correlation coefficient, standard deviation and centered root mean square error (CRMSE). Compared with ECMWF-HRES, CMA-GFS-V4.2 demonstrates superior capability in predicting extreme precipitation events of severe rainstorm intensity or above over the entire verification period. During the operational forecasts of the 2025 Meiyu period, CMA-GFS-V4.2 exhibits stable performance and overall outperforms ECMWF-HRES in the forecasts of rainstorms and more intense precipitation. (3) CMA-GFS-V4.2 is able to better depict the primary heavy precipitation centers, effectively alleviating the spurious precipitation bands and false alarms over the coastal land-sea transition zones present in the previous version; however, its performance in forecasting large-scale precipitation remains relatively weak and requires further optimization.

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张欣,漆梁波,刘冲,等.2024—2025年江淮梅雨期CMA-GFS-V4.2模式降水预报效果评估[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(2):1-14.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-14
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-22
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