文章摘要
台风大风预报研究回顾
An overview of advances in typhoon gale forecasting researches
投稿时间:2021-09-29  修订日期:2021-12-21
DOI:
中文关键词: 台风大风  数值模式  预报
英文关键词: typhoon gale  the numerical model  forecasting
基金项目:广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2019B111101002);深圳市科技计划项目(KCXFZ20201221173610028);国家自然科学基金项目(41675042)
作者单位邮编
李丽芳 中国气象科学研究院、中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所 510000
任福民 中国气象科学研究院 
刘春霞 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所 
万齐林 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所 
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中文摘要:
   大风是台风引发的三大灾害之一,考虑到现有的台风大风研究相对较少、预报经验也比较不足,因此对其预报方法进行回顾总结具有十分重要的意义。本文从经验预报、统计预报、数值模式预报及数值预报产品释用四个方向梳理了台风大风预报技术的研究与应用现状:天气图、卫星云图和雷达图是经验预报中非常重要的工具;统计预报根据方法的不同可细分为回归预报、客观相似预报和气候持续性预报;数值模式预报方面,国内外多家机构都研发了相应的台风大风预报产品;数值预报产品的释用目前则包含了动力释用、统计释用和人工智能释用,并总结了上述四类预报方法各自的优势和不足。最后,讨论了未来研究与实际业务中进一步提高台风大风预报能力的可能发展方向。
英文摘要:
   Gale weather is one of the three severe disasters caused by typhoon. Considering that the research and forecasting experience associated with typhoon gale are now relatively few, it is of great significance to have an overview of advances in typhoon gale forecasting researches. This paper reviews the research and application status of typhoon gale forecasting technology from four perspectives including the empirical forecasting, statistical forecasting, numerical forecasting and numerical forecast interpretation. Furthermore, the weather maps, satellite cloud maps and radar maps play a vital role in empirical forecasting. The statistical forecasting can be subdivided into regression forecast, objective similarity forecast and climatology & persistence forecast.In terms of numerical forecasting, many institutions at home and abroad have developed corresponding forecast products. The numerical forecast interpretation currently includes dynamic interpretation, statistical interpretation and artificial intelligence interpretation. At the same time, the advantages and disadvantages of the four kinds of forecasting methods described above are summarized. Finally, the possible development direction of further improving typhoon gale forecasting ability in research and practice is discussed.
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