文章摘要
台风“烟花”的主要特点和路径预报难点分析
The Analysis of Typhoon “In-Fa” Track Forecast Change Difficulties
投稿时间:2021-10-20  修订日期:2021-12-22
DOI:
中文关键词: 台风“烟花”,路径调整,预报难点,高空冷涡
英文关键词: Typhoon "In-Fa", Track change, Forecast difficulties, Upper cold vortex
基金项目:国家气象中心预报员专项(Y202109)
作者单位邮编
王海平 国家气象中心 100081
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中文摘要:
   本文对2021年第6号台风“烟花”的主要特点与路径预报重大调整过程中出现的难点问题进行了分析和研究,得出主要结论如下:“烟花”移动缓慢,是首个两次登陆浙江的台风,在浙北和杭州湾附近地区长时间滞留。降雨影响范围广、累计降雨量大、大风持续时间长。反映出来的重要难点问题有:当多数模式预报出现一致的偏差时,预报员难以做出订正,有必要开展对模式中台风重要影响系统(高空冷涡-TUTT等)的预报检验工作;台风移速缓慢的定量程度难以把握,需要通过总结历史个例和敏感性试验等方法开展东侧台风对西侧台风移动缓慢影响的定量研究;西风带槽/脊对副热带高压退/进快慢的定量把握困难,影响北上台风转向点的预报,特别是当不同模式有分歧的时候预报难度更大。
英文摘要:
   In this paper, the main characteristics and difficulties in forecast of the sixth typhoon "In-Fa" in 2021 are analyzed and studied. The main conclusions are as follows: "In-Fa" moves slowly and is the first typhoon to land twice in Zhejiang province, staying in the north of Zhejiang and Hangzhou Bay for a long time; The land maintenance time after the second landing is about 79 hours; The rainfall affects a wide range (East China, North China, Northeast China), the accumulated rainfall is large (Ningbo Yuyao Dingjiafan 1034.3mm), and the duration of strong wind is long (duration of 12 Beaufort scale wind: 10-22 hours). It is difficult for forecasters to make corrections when there are consistent deviations in most model forecasts. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the forecast verification work on the important typhoon influence system (upper-air cold vortex-TUTT, etc.) in the model. It is difficult to grasp the quantitative degree of the slow movement of typhoon. The quantitative study of the influence of typhoon in the east on the slow movement of typhoon in the west is carried out by summarizing historical cases and sensitivity tests. The quantitative understanding of the westerly trough/ridge on the retreat/advance speed of the subtropical high affects the prediction of the northward typhoon turning point, especially when different models are different.
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