文章摘要
青岛港潮汐的调和分析与预报
Harmonic analysis and forecast of tides in Qingdao Port
投稿时间:2021-11-11  修订日期:2022-02-07
DOI:
中文关键词: 青岛港口  T_TIDE潮汐分析工具  调和分析  潮汐预报
英文关键词: Qingdao Port  tide analysis tool T_TIDE  harmonic analysis  tidal prediction
基金项目:山东省自然科学基金
作者单位邮编
刘倩 青岛大学 266071
孙小淇 青岛大学 266071
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中文摘要:
   用T_TIDE潮汐分析工具对青岛港口2019年1月至2020年2月逐时潮高资料进行不同时段的调和分析,计算其调和常数,并总结该港口潮汐特征。之后从2019年全年的调和分析结果中选择不同分潮建立调和预报模型,对2019年1月的潮高进行预测,通过相对误差、决策系数结果分析,确定最优调和预报模型。结果表明:青岛港口为正规半日潮港,以M2分潮为主,其次为S2、N2、K1和O1等分潮;相比逐月分析,季节分析得到的潮性系数更接近,季节对结果的影响较小。分潮由5个增加至24个可明显改进预报效果,再增加几乎没有改进,故选用24个分潮为最优的调和预报模型。为验证模型具有良好的实用性,又对五号码头的实测潮汐数据进行分析预报, 其预测精度为0.94161,故该模型可较好的预报青岛港附近海域的潮汐变化。
英文摘要:
   The tide analysis tool t_tide is used to harmonic analyze the hourly tide height data of Qingdao Port from January 2019 to February 2020. The harmonic constant is used to analyze the tidal characteristics of the port. Afterwards, different tides were selected from the results of the harmonic analysis in 2019 to establish a harmonic forecast model to predict the tide height in January 2019. Through the analysis of relative errors and decision coefficient results, the optimal harmonic forecast model is determined. The result shows that the tide in this area is characterized by regular half-diurnal tide, which is dominated by M2 tide and followed by S2、N2、K1and O1 tide. Compared with the monthly analysis, the tidal coefficient obtained from different seasons is basically the same, and the results of the harmonic analysis are almost independent of the season. The prediction accuracy tends to increases when includes tidal components increasing from 5 to 24, while there will be little further improvement by including more tidal components in the prediction, so 24 tidal components are selected as the optimal harmonic forecast model. In order to verify the good practicability of the model, the measured tidal data of Pier 5 are analyzed and predicted. The prediction accuracy is 0.94161, so the model can better predict the tidal changes in the sea area near Qingdao Port.
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