文章摘要
CMIP5模式对青藏高原中东部夏季降水双极型模拟能力的评估
Evaluation of the dipole oscillation of summer precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau by CMIP5 models
投稿时间:2021-11-16  修订日期:2022-02-09
DOI:
中文关键词: 青藏高原中东部夏季降水  双极型  CMIP5  综合评估
英文关键词: Summer precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau  Dipole oscillation  CMIP5  Comprehensive evaluation
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作者单位
李斐斐  
刘朝晖 山东省气象台 
  
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中文摘要:
   青藏高原中东部夏季降水主要表现为东北和东南反位相变化的双极型特征。本文采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)方法,系统性的评估了参与CMIP5历史模拟试验的47个模式对青藏高原中东部夏季降水双极型变化特征的模拟能力。结果表明,大多数模式基本可以抓住青藏高原中东部夏季降水东北和东南部反位相的变化特征。模式间—EOF分析表明在35oN以南的东西向模拟偏差是降水空间型态的主要偏差,且大多数模式对时间系数的模拟效果差于空间型态。本文定义了一个综合评估指标S_new来定量描述模式对空间型态、时间系数以及方差贡献的综合模拟效果。从定量评估结果来看,MIROC-ESM,HadGEM2-CC和ACCESS1-0(FIO-ESM,HadGEM2-AO和MIROC-ESM-CHEM)模式对观测降水的EOF1(EOF2)模态的综合模拟能力相对较好,而GISS系列模式,CESM1-CAM5和MPI-ESM-LR(CMCC-CESM,MPI-ESM-MR和GFDL-CM3)模式对观测降水的EOF1(EOF2)模态的综合模拟效果较差。从EOF1和EOF2的综合评估结果来看,MIROC-ESM-CHEM模式对观测降水的EOF1和EOF2模态的综合模拟效果最好。
英文摘要:
   The summer precipitation over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is mainly characterized by the dipole oscillation between the northeastern and southeastern. The simulation effects of the 47 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the 20th century scenario on the dipole oscillation of the summer precipitation over the central and eastern TP using empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis are undertaken systematic evaluation. The evaluation results show that the models can basically reproduce the seesaw summer precipitation anomalies structure over the central and eastern TP. However, the east-west simulation deviations in the south of 35oN stand out as the most prominent errors of the current generations of most of the CMIP5 models using Intermodel EOF analysis. The simulation abilities of the time coefficients of most of the 47 CMIP5 models are worse than the spatial pattern. We define the comprehensive index S_new to quantitatively rank the 47 CMIP5 models’ comprehensive simulation abilities of spatial pattern, time coefficient and variance contribution. After quantitative evaluation, the overall simulation abilities of observed EOF1 (EOF2) mode by MIROC-ESM, HadGEM2-CC and ACCESS1-0 (FIO-ESM,HadGEM2-AO and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are better. However, the GISS series models, CESM1-CAM5 and MPI-ESM-LR (CMCC-CESM, MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-CM3) have low overall score of observed EOF1 (EOF2) mode. Based on the evaluation results of EOF1 and EOF2, it can be concluded that MIROC-ESM-CHEM has a best comprehensive simulation effect on the first two main modes of observed EOF analysis over the central and eastern TP.
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