文章摘要
山西近40年极端降水特征分析
Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics in Shanxi over the Recent 40 Years
投稿时间:2022-03-24  修订日期:2022-05-05
DOI:
中文关键词: 极端降水  特征  贡献率  变化趋势  M-K检验
英文关键词: extreme precipitation  characteristics  contribution rate  variation trend  M-K test
基金项目:国家自然科学 基金项目(41475050)和山西省气象局项目(SXKMSQH20217122 )共同资助
作者单位邮编
李兆奇 太原市气象局 030082
赵桂香 山西省气象台 030002
赵彩萍 太原市气象局 030082
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中文摘要:
   利用山西省108个国家气象站1979—2018年日降水量资料,采用百分位法、气候趋势系数、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,研究山西省极端降水特征及其变化规律。结果表明:(1)山西极端降水出现在3—10月,呈现发生频次山区多、盆地少,平均强度北中部小、南部大的空间分布特征。(2)山西极端降水以持续时间1d的局地性特征为主,发生大范围极端降水事件的概率较低,洪涝灾害主要是由持续1d的极端降水造成的。(3)近40a,山西极端降水事件呈明显增多趋势,影响范围在扩大,强度略有增强,没有突变发生。各区域极端降水长期变化差异较大,北部强度显著增强、范围明显扩大且在1986年发生了突变;中部极端降水日数和强度显著增多增强,并分别在2001、1992年发生突变;南部极端降水变化趋势微弱。
英文摘要:
   Daily precipitation data from 108 national meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1979-2018 were used to analyze and study the characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation pattern in Shanxi Province using the percentile method, climate trend coefficient, and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that (1) extreme precipitation in Shanxi occurred from March to October, with the spatial distribution features of being more frequent in mountainous areas and less in the basins, while the average intensity was small in the central and northern region and large in the southern region. (2) Extreme precipitation in Shanxi mainly consisted of local rainfall lasting 1d, and the probability of extreme precipitation events over a large area was low, and flooding was mainly caused by extreme precipitation lasting 1d. (3) Over the recent 40 years, the number of extreme precipitation days in Shanxi Province showed a significant increasing trend; the range of impact was enlarging, intensity was slightly greater, and no abrupt change happened. In the northern region intensity increased in significance, range expanded markedly, and abrupt change occurred in 1986. For the central region, extreme precipitation days and intensity improved significantly, and sudden change occurred in 2001 and 1992 respectively. The variation trend of extreme precipitation in the southern region was weak.
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