云微物理参数化对东亚近海热带气旋活动模拟的影响
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辅天华,男,硕士研究生,主要从事陆面过程与气候数值模拟研究,fth19950510@163.com。

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国家重点研究发展计划项目(2018YFC1506405);国家自然科学基金项目(41975067,41275067,41575108)


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Impact of cloud microphysical parameterization schemes on the simulation of tropical cyclones over offshore areas of East Asia
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    摘要:

    基于CWRF模式(Climate Extension of Weather Research and Forecast Model)结果,探讨了8种云微物理参数化方案对1986—2015年间东亚近海热带气旋的空间分布、频数及强度模拟的影响。结果发现:CWRF模式中各云微物理参数化方案模拟的热带气旋频数普遍较观测偏少,其模拟的强度相比观测也偏弱;热带气旋的空间分布和频数对云微物理参数化方案的选择较为敏感,而云微物理方案的选择对热带气旋强度的模拟影响不大;Morrison方案和Morrison-a方案模拟的热带气旋空间分布更接近于观测,但对热带气旋频数及强度的年际变化趋势模拟得较差,而GSFCGCE方案的TS评分及强度、频数的相关系数均较其他方案偏高。综合来看,采用GSFCGCE方案模拟热带气旋活动总体最优。进一步分析发现,相较于Morrison方案和Thompson方案,考虑气溶胶影响的Thompson-a和Morrison-a方案不仅可以有效提高对热带气旋频数及空间分布的模拟能力,还对热带气旋频数及强度年际变化趋势的模拟能力也有所提升。

    Abstract:

    Based on CWRF (Climate Extension of Weather Research and Forecast) model, 8 cloud microphysical parameterization schemes are compared in simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred over offshore areas of East Asia from 1986 to 2015 with respect to spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity. It is found that the TCs simulated by each cloud microphysical parameterization scheme in CWRF model have less frequency and weaker intensity compared with observations. The spatial distribution and frequency of the simulated TCs are sensitive to the selection of cloud microphysical parameterization schemes, whereas it has little impact on the TC intensity. The spatial distribution of the TCs is well simulated by the Morrison and Morrison-a schemes, while the annual variation tendency of TC frequency and intensity is poorly simulated by these two schemes in comparison with other schemes; by contrast, the GSFCGCE scheme performs better in the TS score and correlation coefficients between frequency and intensity. In all, the GSFCGCE scheme can better simulate TC activities than other microphysical schemes in CWRF model. Further analysis shows that compared with the Morrison and Thompson schemes, the Thompson-a and Morrison-a schemes, which take the impact of aerosol into consideration, can improve not only the simulation of frequency and spatial distribution, but also annual variation tendency of frequency and intensity.

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辅天华,陈海山,曾智华,徐明.云微物理参数化对东亚近海热带气旋活动模拟的影响[J].海洋气象学报,2020,40(1):12-21.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-11-25
  • 最后修改日期:2020-02-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-04-28
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