两类厄尔尼诺事件对登陆中国热带气旋的影响
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范伶俐,女,博士,教授,主要研究方向为海气相互作用,fanlingli@126.com。孔蕴淇,女,本科生,主要研究方向为海气相互作用,381259565@qq.com。

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国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项(2018YFC1506002);广东海洋大学大学生省级创新性实验项目(CXXL2019044);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(湛江)项目(ZJW-2019-08)


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Effects of two types of El Niño events on tropical cyclones landing in China
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    摘要:

    利用上海台风研究所整编的1951—2016年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和NOAA的COBE-SST再分析资料,按照热带气旋生成区域将热带气旋分为南海热带气旋与西北太平洋热带气旋两类,采用合成分析等统计学方法探讨了热带气旋活动盛期,登陆中国的热带气旋对东部型和中部型厄尔尼诺(El Niño)事件的响应。结果表明,热带气旋活动盛期,南海热带气旋在两类El Niño事件下生成频数差异不大;东部型El Niño存续期南海热带气旋登陆中国比率较中部型El Niño时偏低,登陆时强度较中部型偏弱。中部型El Niño存续期间,西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数比东部型El Niño时的频数偏高,而登陆中国热带气旋较东部型偏少,登陆时热带气旋强度较东部型偏弱;但两类El Niño事件期间西北太平洋热带气旋在中国的登陆率差异没有通过显著性检验。与中部型El Niño事件相比,在东部型El Niño事件期间,西北太平洋海面温度偏低,对流层中部水汽条件较差,对流层低层涡度异常偏低,同时在热带气旋较为集中生成的海域存在沃克(Walker)环流的异常下沉气流,西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏东偏南,共同导致登陆中国热带气旋频数偏少。

    Abstract:

    In this study, the CMA-STI Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over western North Pacific from 1951 to 2016, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and COBE-SST dataset of NOAA are used. According to tropical cyclone genesis fields, the tropical cyclones are divided into two types: tropical cyclones in the South China Sea and tropical cyclones in western North Pacific. The response of tropical cyclones landing in China during their active period to the Eastern Pacific (EP) type and Central Pacific (CP) type El Niño is investigated by means of synthetic analysis and other statistical methods. The results show the frequency of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea under the two types of El Niño events has little differenc during the tropical cyclones’ active period. The rate of the South China Sea tropical cyclones landing in China for the duration of EP type El Niño is lower and the intensity is weaker than that during CP type El Niño. For the duration of CP type El Niño, the frequency of tropical cyclone formation in western North Pacific is higher than that during EP type El Niño, but the tropical cyclone landfall in China is less and the tropical cyclone intensity is weaker than that during EP type El Niño. However, the difference in the landing rates of tropical cyclones generated over western North Pacific in China during the two types of El Niño events does not pass the significance test. Compared with CP type El Niño events, during EP type El Niño events, the combined action of low sea surface temperature in western North Pacific, poor water vapor conditions in the central troposphere, unusually low vorticity in the lower troposphere, abnormal downdraft in Walker circulation in the sea areas with more tropical cyclone genesis, and the subtropical high over western North Pacific which is more eastward southward, leads to fewer tropical cyclones landing in China.

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孔蕴淇,范伶俐,李俊杰.两类厄尔尼诺事件对登陆中国热带气旋的影响[J].海洋气象学报,2020,40(4):77-88.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-05-24
  • 最后修改日期:2020-09-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-01-23
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