气候变化背景下江苏省水稻气候适宜性区划研究
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第一作者:吴洪颜,女,正高级工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气候资源评价和气象灾害风险评估研究,306916487@qq.com 通信作者:张佩,女,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事应用气象研究,78073954@qq.com

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国家重点研发计划专项(2019YFD1002201)


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Study on climatic suitability regionalization of rice in Jiangsu under climate change
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    摘要:

    综合利用前人研究结果与江苏地区水稻生长所需的光、温、水特性,提出了江苏水稻气候适宜性评价指标为适宜生长期、5—10月降水量、t≥10℃活动积温、日照时数;依据现有稻麦(油)两熟的耕作制度,确立了江苏水稻气候适宜性区划因子和分级阈值。基于1961—2019年江苏省及周边共85个站(市、区)的气象数据,采用模糊综合评判法建立水稻气候适宜性评估模型,并确定综合评估指数,利用ArcGIS的自然断点法,将江苏中熟中粳、迟熟中粳、早熟晚粳、中熟晚粳种植适宜区进行区划。通过30a尺度下的年代际分析发现,由于适宜生长期延长和活动积温增加,使得四个品种特性的水稻适宜种植区域均有所调整,其中晚熟粳稻的种植范围北扩到淮河以南地区。

    Abstract:

    Based on previous researches and analysis of the characteristics of sunlight, temperature, and water required for rice growth in Jiangsu, it is put forward that the evaluation indexes of climatic suitability for rice are the length of suitable growth period, cumulative precipitation, active accumulated temperature of t≥10 ℃, and sunshine duration from May to October. The regionalization factors and grading thresholds of climatic suitability for rice in Jiangsu are established in combination with the existing rice-wheat or rice-rape double cropping system. Based on the meteorological data of 85 stations (cities and districts) in Jiangsu and its surrounding areas from 1961 to 2019, an evaluation model of climatic suitability for rice is established by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the comprehensive evaluation index is calculated. Then the planting area of rice in Jiangsu is divided into 4 zones of medium-ripening medium japonica, late-ripening medium japonica, early-ripening late japonica, and medium-ripening late japonica by using the natural breakpoint method of ArcGIS. The interdecadal analysis under the scale of 30 a shows the suitable planting areas of the 4 rice varieties are adjusted due to the extension of the suitable growth period and the increase of active accumulated temperature, among which, the planting area of late-ripening japonica rice is expanded to the south of the Huaihe River.

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吴洪颜 ,张佩.气候变化背景下江苏省水稻气候适宜性区划研究[J].海洋气象学报,2021,41(3):69-76.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-01
  • 出版日期: 2021-08-31
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