2020年北上台风对东北地区农业影响特征及产量损失估算
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国家气象中心

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Influence characteristics of northward typhoon on agriculture in Northeast China in 2020 and estimation of total grain production loss
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National Meteorological Center

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    摘要:

    2020年初秋东北地区连续遭受三个台风影响,为建国以来历史首次。本文依据气象观测资料和产量资料,系统分析了台风集中影响期间东北地区农业气象条件特征,估算了台风致灾造成的东北三省粮食单产和总产损失。结果表明,2020年初秋“巴威”“美莎克”和“海神”台风集中影响期间,频繁强降雨造成东北地区平均降水量较常年同期偏多3.3倍,吉林、黑龙江两省降水量均为近60年历史同期最多;吉林、黑龙江土壤湿涝状况为2013—2020年同期最重,部分农田出现大范围渍涝灾害。吉林和黑龙江遭受近40年来最强日平均风影响,造成大范围作物倒伏。吉林中东部、黑龙江南部遭受较重产量损失。其中,台风“美莎克”影响最重,其次为“海神”,“巴威”最轻。分省来看,吉林受灾最重,黑龙江次之,辽宁最轻。分作物来看,玉米受灾最重,水稻次之,大豆最轻。2020年作物生长季,初秋三个北上台风对吉林和黑龙江的影响均是造成两省秋粮单产较正常年景偏差的主要因素。估算得出2020年台风造成东北三省秋粮总产较正常年景至少损失约115万t,约占秋粮总产1.0%;其中,吉林受灾最重,至少损失秋粮约95万t,约占吉林秋粮总产2.5%;黑龙江省秋粮总产至少损失0.2%。

    Abstract:

    In the early autumn of 2020, it was the first time since 1949 that Northeast China was successively affected by the three typhoons. Based on the meteorological observation data and yield data, the characteristics of agro-meteorological conditions during the typhoon concentrated impact period were analyzed, and the losses of grain yield and total output caused by the typhoon in Northeast China were estimated. The results showed that in 2020, during the concentrated impacts of typhoons Bawei, Maysak and Haishen,frequent heavy rainfall had caused the average precipitation in Northeast China to be 3.3 times higher than that in normal years, and the precipitation in Jilin and Heilongjiang is the highest in the past 60 years; The soil moisture and waterlogging in Jilin and Heilongjiang were the heaviest in the same period during the period of 2013-2020, and large-scale waterlogging disasters had occurred in some farmland. Jilin and Heilongjiang had been affected by the strongest daily average wind in the past 40 years, causing large-scale crop lodging. In central eastern Jilin and south Heilongjiang, there were serious farmland waterlogging and crop lodging, resulting in yield loss. Among the three typhoons, agriculture in Northeast China was most affected by typhoon Maysak,followed by Haishen and Bawei. From the perspective of the three provinces, the three typhoons caused the heaviest agricultural disaster in Jilin, followed by Heilongjiang and Liaoning.From the perspective of crops, maize was the most severely affected, followed by rice and soybeans. In the crop growth season in 2020, the three northward typhoons in early autumn were the most which was the main factor causing the deviation of autumn grain yield per unit area from the normal year. Preliminary estimation showed that the typhoon would caused a loss of at least 1.15 million tons of total output of autumn grain in the three northeast provinces in 2020, accounting for about 1.0%.The loss of total output of autumn grain in Jilin Province was the most, at least 950000 tons , accounting for about 2.5% of the total output of autumn grain in Jilin. The loss of total output of autumn grain in Heilongjiang Province accounted for at least 0.2%.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-25
  • 最后修改日期:2022-09-14
  • 录用日期:2024-01-08
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