海南岛强台风事件的影响因子探析
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中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-103);国家自然科学基金(41785005).


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Analysis on the precursory factors of violent typhoon events affecting Hainan Island
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China Meteorological Administration Weather Review Special Foundation(FPZJ2023-103),National Natural Science Foundation of China (41785005)

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    摘要:

    利用台风资料、海南灾情资料、再分析资料和多种统计分析方法,确定了1967-2015年影响海南岛的15个强台风事件,探析了海南岛强台风事件(Hainan violent typhoon event,简称HNVTE)的影响因子。结果表明HNVTE发生的气候背景信息表现为多时间尺度因子的协同作用:1980s年代后期海温(副高)呈突变式增暖(变强)可能为HNVTE的减少提供了年代际尺度背景;ENSO和平流层准两年振荡(QBO)的共同作用提供了HNVTE变化的年际异常背景。西太平洋冷期中出现中等强度的拉尼娜状态和暖期中出现中等强度的厄尔尼诺状态均有利于HNVTE发生,而平流层西风位相下低层强西风切变则会抑制这两种状态下的HNVTE活动。根据西太平洋海温的年代际位相、ENSO循环位相及强度和QBO位相及强度构建的BEST-QBO协同作用指数很好地识别HNVTE的发生,可为HNVTE的气候预测提供有用的信号。

    Abstract:

    An index of violent typhoon event affecting Hainan Island (HNVTE) is defined to better determine the occurrence of the HNVTE according to the data from Hainan natural disasters. 15 violent typhoon cases were selected by using the index during 1967-2015, then the precursory factors of the HNVTE are analyzed. The results show that the HNVTE is benefit from the cooperation of multi-time scale factors: The abrupt warming of the SST (sea surface temperature) over the north western Pacific (subtropical high being stronger) in the late 1980s may provide the decadal scale background for the decrease of HNVTE; The combination of ENSO and Stratospheric quasi-biennial Oscillation provides an interannual anomaly background for the HNVTE variability. The moderate La Ni?a state during the cold period and the moderate El Ni?o state during the warm period in the Western Pacific are favorable for the occurrence of HNVTE, but the HNVTE activity is inhibited by the low-level strong westerly shear under the stratospheric westerly phase. The occurrence of HNVTE can be well identified by the BEST-QBO synergy index constructed from the SST interdecadal phase, ENSO cyclic phase and intensity, and QBO phase and intensity of the Western Pacific sst, which can provide a useful signal for HNVTE climate prediction.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-24
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-08
  • 录用日期:2024-03-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-08-23
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