2203号台风“暹芭”的路径预报偏差及思考
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1.国家气象中心;2.中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心

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国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1501604),海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金项目(SCSF202101)


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Track Forecast Deviation and Thinking of No. 2203 Typhoon “Chaba”
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1.National Meteorological Center;2.Center of Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA

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    摘要:

    针对2022年第3号台风“暹芭”的主要特点和预报难点问题进行了分析和研究,得出如下主要结论:“暹芭”是2022年首个登陆我国的台风,在华南登陆减弱后,其残余环流继续北上,与西风带系统共同影响我国华中、华东、华北及东北等地的部分地区;累计雨量大、风雨强度强;台风外围出现多个龙卷。主要的预报难点问题有:弱台风准确定位问题表现突出,引进新的卫星产品将有助于提高定位精度;72 h路径预报的偏差问题主要是由于模式对东台风、大陆高压和南压高压、西风急流等关键系统的预报偏差引起;台风登陆后北上长时间维持(含减弱后的残涡)的预报问题需关注持续的水汽通道和高层出流条件变化。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the main characteristics and forecast difficulties of Typhoon "Chaba" in 2022 are analyzed and studied. The main conclusions are as follows: "Chaba" is the first typhoon landing in China in 2022. After landfall, together with the westerly trough, its remnant continues to move northward, and affect central China, East China, North China and Northeast China. The accumulated rainfall is large and the wind is strong. There were several tornadoes around the typhoon. There are three main difficulties in forecasting. First of all, the problem of accurate positioning of weak typhoons is outstanding. Introduction of new satellite products will improve the positioning accuracy. The track deviation of the 72 h forecast is mainly caused by the inaccurate NWP of the key systems, such as the east one of binary typhoons, Continental high, South Asia high and Westerly jet. The prediction of the remnant maintenance after typhoon landing needs to pay more attention to the continuous adjustment of water vapor channel and high-level outflow conditions.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-01-09
  • 录用日期:2023-02-17
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