厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对华东地区春季降水影响的不对称性
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1.民航天津空中交通管理分局 天津;2.天津市气象局 天津

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41575049


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Asymmetric Effect of El Ni?o—Southern Oscillation on the Spring Precipitation over East China
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    摘要:

    华东地区是我国人口最密集、社会经济发展水平较高的地区之一,而该地区旱涝灾害频发,对当地的经济发展和人民生活造成了极大的影响。本文利用1958-2019年的观测和再分析数据集,分析了冷、暖两类厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件与后期华东地区春季降水之间的关系。在ENSO正相位年内,华东春季降水量与前冬季ENSO海温(SST)异常存在较强的正相关关系。在ENSO负相年份,这种强正相关向内陆地区西移,主要集中在江西省和湖南省。具体来说,厄尔尼诺事件通常会导致浙江、江苏和福建等沿海省份春季降水量过剩,而拉尼娜事件往往导致江西和湖南省降水偏少。这归因于ENSO对大气环流的非线性影响。与厄尔尼诺相比,拉尼娜事件引起的异常中心明显西移,引起了异常低层大气环流的西移,最终导致华东降水的西移效应。我们的发现强调了华东春季降水对ENSO的非线性响应,这对华东地区的季节性气候预测具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    East China is one of the most densely populated and agriculture-based regions in China. Local spring precipitation is crucial to the people’s livelihood and social economic development. Using the observed and reanalysis datasets for the period 1958–2019, this study revealed an asymmetric effect of El Ni?o—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the following spring precipitation over East China. During the years with positive ENSO phases, a strong positive correlation between spring precipitation and the preceding winter ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies existed over Zhejiang and Jiangsu province. For the years with negative ENSO phases, such a strong positive correlation shifts westwards to Jiangxi and Hunan province. To be specific, the El Ni?o events usually result in a precipitation surplus in the decaying spring over Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Fujian province, while the La Ni?a events usually lead to a precipitation deficit in the decaying spring over Jiangxi and Hunan province. This is attributed to the nonlinear effects of ENSO on the atmospheric circulation. Compared with El Ni?o, the abnormal center of La Ni?a evidently extends westwards, inducing a westward movement of the anomalous low-level atmospheric circulation, which eventually results in a westward-shifted effect on the following spring precipitation over East China. Our findings emphasize the nonlinear responses of spring precipitation over East China to ENSO. This has important implications for the seasonal climate predictions over East China.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-03
  • 录用日期:2023-07-01
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-06
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