Abstract:In order to explore the effects of future climate change on agricultural climate resources and climate suitability of summer maize and its disasters in Huang-Huai-Hai region, based on the observation data of growth period of summer maize at 56 agricultural meteorological stations and daily observation data of meteorological elements at 84 meteorological stations in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1981 to 2021, and daily meteorological data of 897 grid points (0.25°× 0.25°) under the future climate scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B, IPCC SRES A1B) output by the mesoscale Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 2022 to 2100, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of future agricultural climate resources such as light, temperature, and water, establishes a climate suitability index model and a disaster risk index model based on climate suitability for the growth and development of summer maize, studies the effects of future climate change on the climate suitability of summer maize, and estimates the risks and characteristics of agrometeorological disaster for summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai region. The results are as follows. (1) During the whole growth period of summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 2022 to 2100, the thermal resources show an increasing trend, the precipitation resources show a slightly upward trend with obvious periodic changes, while the solar resources show no obvious changes. (2) From 2022 to 2100, the climate suitability of summer maize in the whole growth period in Huang-Huai-Hai region shows an overall stable trend with slightly downward fluctuation, and there are periodic characteristics and differences at different growth stages. The climate suitability is the worst at sowing and seeding stage and the best at mature stage. (3) The temperature suitability in the whole growth period shows a stably downward trend with fluctuations, indicating that the increase of thermal resources in the future is generally unfavorable to the growth of summer maize. The water suitability and light suitability are generally stable without obvious changes, indicating that the water and light resources are basically favorable to summer maize in the future. (4) The temperature suitability is the worst in the 2080s and the 2090s, and the best in the 2020s; the water suitability is the worst in the 2030s and the best in the 2080s; the light suitability is poor in the 2080s and 2090s and obviously higher in the 2020s and the 2030s. On the whole, the climate suitability of summer maize from 2061 to 2100 is generally poor but the best in the 2020s. (5) The highest disaster risk for summer maize is heat damage from high temperature at tasseling and silking stage, drought and flood at 3-7 leaves stage, and sparse sunlight from continuous rain at sowing and seedling stage, while the risk of agrometeorological disasters at mature stage is the lowest. (6) From 2080 to 2098, there is a high risk of heat damage from high temperature for summer maize at jointing stage, tasseling and silking stage, and filling-milk ripening stage; in the periods of 2031-2035 and 2046-2056, there is a high risk of serious drought and flood from sowing and seeding stage to jointing stage; in the 2030s, the 2040s, 2026, and the period of 2080-2093, there is a high risk of sparse sunlight with continuous rain in the seeding stage.