未来北极夏季陆面2m气温变化区域特征及其与北大西洋海表面温度的关系
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1.物理海洋教育部重点实验室POL;2.深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心FDOMES,中国海洋大学,青岛

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国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607004);国家自然科学(41975061、42075024)


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Regional characteristics of the future Arctic summer 2m air temperature change and its relationship with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature
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Physical Oceanography Laboratory POL Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System FDOMES,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,China

Fund Project:

National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFA0607004) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975061, 42075024)

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    摘要:

    未来变暖背景下北极气候变化特征研究具有重要意义,基于耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中对北极气候变化模拟能力较好的模式模拟结果,研究SSP2-4.5情景下21世纪北极2m气温的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)极地陆地的欧亚大陆部分(EA)和北美—格陵兰部分(GL)对全球变暖具有不同的响应,EA在21世纪中叶前变暖趋势显著,之后主要表现为年代际尺度的冷暖振荡;GL则始终保持增暖趋势。EA、GL分区气温均存在年际、年代际(10-20a)尺度上的波动,GL分区还存在20-40a的准周期变化。(2)前冬北大西洋涛动正位相会引起次年夏季北大西洋呈南北向“-、+、-”三极型海温异常,并通过影响大气环流导致EA分区气温正异常,这种影响主要体现在年代际尺度上。(3)北大西洋多年代际振荡为正异常时,北美至格陵兰位势高度偏高,GL分区增暖,并且这种影响在21世纪70年代后更重要;北太平洋北部的海温正异常对GL分区增温也有贡献。

    Abstract:

    The research on the characteristics of Arctic climate change under the background of future warming is of great significance. This research studies the spatiotemporal variability of Arctic 2m temperature in the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario based on the climate models with better simulation of Arctic climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that: (1) The Eurasian part (EA) and the North America-Greenland part (GL) of the polar continent have different changing trends. The EA has significant warming trend before the middle of the 21st century, and then mainly shows the interdecadal oscillations; GL maintains a warming trend. The temperature of EA and GL fluctuates on annual and interdecadal (10-20a) scales, and there is also a quasi-periodic variation of 20-40a in GL. (2) The positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the previous winter will cause the North Atlantic to present a south-north "-, +, -" tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the next summer, and lead to a positive temperature anomaly in the EA by affecting the atmospheric circulation. (3) When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is positive, the geopotential height from North America to Greenland is high, and the GL warms. This effect is more important after the 2070s. The positive SSTA of the north of the North Pacific also contribute to the warming of the GL.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-03-11
  • 最后修改日期:2023-04-22
  • 录用日期:2023-07-14
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