数字滤波初始化对台风“烟花”数值模拟的影响研究
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室;2.山东省气象科学研究所

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P456.7

基金项目:

中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J015,CXFZ2023J084);山东台风与海洋气象创新团队(SDCXTD2021-2);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2022MD040);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金(QYXM202007,QYXM202202);山东省气象局科研项目(2019sdqxm07)


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Study on the influence of application of digital filter initialization on the numerical forecast of Typhoon INFA
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Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong

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    摘要:

    基于中尺度数值模式WRF,分析在逐小时循环同化系统中,高频多次应用数字滤波初始化方案对台风“烟花”模拟结果的影响。结果表明:数字滤波能够产生与天气现象相关的滤波增量。晴空区域由于向后积分过程中辐射等重要过程未开启,后向积分结束时近地面温度变化较小,在前向积分时白天到达地表的太阳短波辐射过度累积,夜间地表热辐射过度释放,造成晴空区白天2-m温度升高,夜间2-m温度降低。台风对流区域受后向积分为绝热过程的影响,原本上升运动中水汽凝结释放潜热脱离气块的降水无法在绝热下沉增温中吸收热量变为水汽,在后向积分时产生了热量的异常累积以及水汽的减少,导致强对流区域热力结构发生变化。随着数字滤波应用次数的增加,初始化过程对初始场和预报的影响逐渐积累,造成的预报差异持续整个模拟过程。在循环同化的基础上多次应用数字滤波初始化,数字滤波初始化显示出较好的抑制高频噪声的作用。多次滤波后台风环流中心暖心增强引起台风强度增强;暖湿气流向鲁南地区输送的减弱造成鲁西南地区特大暴雨漏报;台风环流位置的偏南影响了后期与西风槽结合的时间导致后期移速偏慢。

    Abstract:

    Impacts of multiple application of digital filter initialization scheme was studied by numerical experiments with the mesoscale model WRF on Typhoon INFA in the hourly cycle assimilation system. The main results are as follows: The filter can generate filtering increments related to weather. In the clear sky region, affected by the fact that the physical process such as radiation processes is closed, At the end of backward integration the near-surface temperature changes little, during the forward integration, the downward short wave radiation flux at the surface over-accumulates in the daytime, the ground heat flux over-accumulates in the nighttime, caused the 2m temperature is increased in the daytime and 2m temperature reduction in the nighttime. In the strong convection typhoon region, affected by the fact that the backward integral is adiabatic, the precipitation that water vapor condenses away from the air mass during the original ascending motion with latent heat release cannot absorb heat and become water vapor, the abnormal temperature increased and water vapor decrease during the backward integration result in the change of the thermal structure of the initial convective area. The filtering increment keeps increasing with the increase of the number of digital filtering lead to the increasing of simulation differences. After the assimilation data was introduced, Digital filtering initialization can reduce high frequency noise. The reason is that after multiple filtering, the warm core of the typhoon circulation center increases and the typhoon intensity increases. The weakening of warm and humid air transport to southern Shandong resulted in the omission of heavy rain report in southeastern Shandong. The southerly position of the typhoon circulation affected the time of combining with the westerly trough in the late period, resulting in moving slow in the late period.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-23
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-17
  • 录用日期:2024-01-03
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