台风“杜苏芮”(2305)的主要特点及路径和强度预报难点分析
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国家气象中心

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Analysis on Main Characteristics of Typhoon Doksuri (2305) and Difficulties in its Track and Intensity Forecast
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Nation Meteorological Center,Beijing

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    摘要:

    本文总结了2023年第5号台风“杜苏芮”主要特点,并对主要的预报难点问题进行了分析和研究,主要结论如下:(1)“杜苏芮”登陆强度强,是2023年截至10月登陆我国最强的台风,登陆后在陆上长时间维持,造成福建、安徽等地多站点风雨观测突破历史极值,黄淮、华北等地出现历史极端强降雨天气;(2)在“杜苏芮”生成初期,由于副热带高压受到多系统的影响,数值模式对于“杜苏芮”台风东侧新生热带扰动的强度、位置预报存在偏差,是产生较大路径预报偏差的原因;(3)“杜苏芮”登陆前形成双眼墙结构增加了登陆强度预报的难度,有利的形势条件和多源观测资料的应用为台风强度预报提供了良好的支撑;(4)“杜苏芮”登陆后,来自西南季风和第6号台风“卡努”共同的水汽输送、太行山地形作用以及移动路径上弱的垂直风切变均有利于台风减弱后的低压环流长时间维持。

    Abstract:

    In this study, the overview and main characteristic of Typhoon Doksuri are summarized, and the difficulties in its forecast are also analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Typhoon Doksuri is characterized by the strong landfall intensity, which is the strongest typhoon that make a landfall in China till October 2023. And it sustains long term after landing and causes multiple stations observed precipitation and wind break the historical records, North China and Huanghuai experience the historical extreme heavy rainfall. (2) After the genesis of Doksuri, as the circulations which affected subtropical high are complicated, prediction errors of the location and intensity for the new born tropical disturbance at the east of Doksuri lead to deviations, which is responsible for the forecast bias. (3) The formation of double eye wall increases the difficulty of predicting the landing strength of Doksuri. The favorable circulations and the application of multiple observations are favorable for the typhoon intensity predictions. (4) The sustainable water vapor transport from monsoon and Typhoon Khanun, the effects of terrain and weak vertical wind shear along the typhoon track, the low-pressure circulation maintains a long time after Doksuri made landfall.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-26
  • 录用日期:2023-11-16
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