四种检验方法对山东暴雪预报的评估分析
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山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室

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Evaluation and analysis of four evaluate methods for snowstorm forecast in Shandong province
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Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction

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    摘要:

    利用山东122个国家基本气象站2017-2021年1-3月和11-12月 “24 h降雪量≥10.0 mm”的暴雪实况资料,采用二分类法、邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法等四种方法对山东暴雪预报进行检验与对比。结果表明:(1)时段内暴雪的总站次数为182个,暴雪分布具有明显的时空分布特征,主要出现在半岛北部地区,鲁东南和半岛南部产生暴雪的概率最小。出现次数的年际和月际变化明显,最多年份出现98站次,最少年份仅有5站次,二月份是高发月份,占全年暴雪站次的38.5%。(2)现行业务中应用最广泛的二分类法检验的准确率较低,其中24 h仅为12.08%,主要原因是该方法在空间、时间和量级上存在多重影响,不能精细准确地反映预报能力。(3)邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法对24 h的暴雪预报准确率分别为14.4%、14.69%、30.05%,相较于二分类法,这三种检验方法的准确率均有较大幅度提高,空报率和漏报率均较大幅度下降。(4)融合了邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法的综合检验法,能从空间、时间和量级三个维度区分出预报差异,检验结果更加精细准确,有利于引导预报员放下“检验评分低”的思想包袱,做出科学客观的预报,提升预报服务效果。

    Abstract:

    Using the actual snowstorm data of 122 national basic meteorological stations in Shandong Province from January to March and November to December of 2017-2021, with a snowfall volume of ≥ 10.0 mm, four methods were used to evaluate and compare the snowstorm forecast in Shandong, including binary classification, neighborhood method, time offset method, and magnitude fuzzy method. The results show that: 1) The total number of snowstorm stations during the period was 182, and the distribution of snowstorm had obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, mainly appearing in the northern part of the peninsula, and the probability of snowstorm was the least in the southeast of Shandong and the southern part of the peninsula. The frequency of snowstorms varies significantly between years and months, with 98 occurring in the most years and only 5 occurring in the least years. February is the most frequent month, accounting for 38.5% of the annual snowstorms. 2) The accuracy of the most widely used binary classification method in current business is relatively low, with only 12.08% in 24 hours. The main reason is that this method has multiple effects in space, time, and magnitude, which cannot accurately reflect the prediction ability. 3) The accuracy rates of neighborhood method, time offset method, and magnitude fuzzy method for 24-hour snow storm forecasting are 14.4%, 14.69%, and 30.05%, respectively. Compared with binary classification method, the accuracy rates of these three testing methods have significantly improved, while the false and false alarm rates have significantly decreased. 4) A comprehensive evalutation method that integrates neighborhood method, time offset method, and magnitude fuzzy method can distinguish forecast differences from three dimensions: space, time, and magnitude. The evaluate results are more precise and accurate, which is conducive to guiding forecasters to put down the burden of "low evaluate scores" and make scientific and objective predictions, improving the effectiveness of forecasting services.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-01-25
  • 录用日期:2024-03-06
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