2021年春末夏初强对流频发的天气气候背景分析
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1.山西省气象科学研究所;2.山东省气象服务中心/山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室

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湖北省气象局科研项目年轻科技人员专项


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Climatic background analysis of frequent severe convection in late spring and early summer in 2021
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    摘要:

    2021年春末夏初我国多地先后出现强对流天气,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。其中,5月10~16日我国南方(25°~32.5°N,112.5°~122.5°E)强对流天气尤为频发。本文分析了2021年5月10~16日的大气环流异常特征,及其相应的动力、热力、水汽条件,从大尺度环境场的视角揭示了该阶段南方强对流天气频发的原因。结果表明,该阶段强对流天气的频发与大尺度环境场的异常密切相关。欧亚500hPa高度场距平自西北向东南呈现出“+-+”的分布特征,其中乌拉尔山和东亚沿岸为正距平,贝加尔湖一带为负距平。东亚沿岸的正距平与西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)偏北偏强相对应。副高北侧的异常西南暖湿气流有利于我国南方地区上升运动的发展和不稳定层结的建立;异常暖平流的减压作用有利于我国南方低层辐合系统频繁发生,为强对流天气提供了触发条件。此外,强烈的垂直风切变亦是强对流系统发展的有利动力条件之一。进一步分析发现,对流层上层存在一支自欧亚高纬地区向东南方向传播的异常波作用通量,表明该阶段的波列型环流异常与罗斯贝波能量频散密切相关。可见,中高纬大气动力过程在此次南方频发强对流事件中扮演了重要角色。

    Abstract:

    In the late spring and early summer of 2021, many regions in China experienced abnormal rainstorms and severe convections, causing heavy casualties and property losses, especially in southern China (25°~32.5°N,112.5°~122.5°E) from May 10 to 16. In order to investigate the potential causes of the frequent severe convection outbreaks in southern China from a perspective of largescale environment, the present study analyzed the features of the atmospheric circulation anomalies during 10-16 May,2021, as well as the associated dynamical, thermal and moisture conditions. The results show that the outbreaks of severe convections are closely related to large-scale circulation anomalies. At 500hPa, the geopotential height anomalies exhibit a northwest-southeast oriented wave train pattern with a “+-+” distribution. Along this wave train, the Ural Mountains and the coastal regions of East Asia are dominated by positive height anomalies, while the Lake Baikal are occupied by negative height anomalies. The positive anomaly along the East Asian coast corresponds to an intensified and northward shifted western Pacific subtropical high (shorted as WPSH). The anomalous southwest warm air flow to the north of the WPSH is beneficial to the development of ascent as well as the establishment of unstable stratification in southern China. On the other hand, the anomalous warm advection makes the pressure decrease in the lower layer in southern China, so the systems such as surface convergence line, front and low-layer shear line occur frequently, which would trigger severe convections. In addition, the strong vertical wind shear formed between high and low-level jets is also one of the favorable dynamic conditions for the development of severe convective system. Further analysis indicates, there is a southeastward propagating anomalous wave activity flux that originates from the high latitudes of Eurasia, suggesting the wave train-like circulation pattern is closely associated with the dispersion of the Rossby wave energy. Therefore, the anomalies of atmospheric dynamical process in mid-high latitude play an important role in the frequent severe convections in southern China.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-16
  • 录用日期:2024-08-23
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