山东无棣人工增雨效果的统计检验
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室、滨州市气象局;2.滨州市气象局

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山东省气象局气象科研项目(2020sdqxm21)


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Statistical Testing of the Effect of Artificial Rainfall Enhancement in Wudi, Shandong Province
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Affiliation:

1.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong;2.Binzhou Meteorological Bureau

Fund Project:

Shandong Provincial Meteorological Bureau Meteorological Research Project(2020sdqxm21)

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    摘要:

    为客观评估无棣县增雨作业效果,使用1964—2023年滨州、无棣国家基本气象站及区域站4—7月降水资料,采用序列分析、区域回归分析、区域对比分析3种统计检验方法对2014—2023年的人工增雨作业效果进行了分析研究。结果表明:4—7月序列分析、区域回归分析旬平均绝对增雨量分别为7.24mm、7.89 mm;序列分析4月、5月、7月通过了α=0.05的显著性检验,区域回归分析4月、7月通过了α=0.05的显著性检验。区域对比分析作业日平均绝对增雨量为3.75mm、平均日相对增雨率21.93%;4月、6月和7月通过了α=0.05的显著性检验,5月通过了α=0.1的显著性检验。

    Abstract:

    To objectively evaluate the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement in Wudi County, using precipitation data from 1964 to 2023 at Binzhou and Wudi national basic meteorological stations and regional stations from April to July, three statistical testing methods, namely sequence analysis, regional comparative analysis, and regional regression analysis, were used to analyze and study the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement from 2014 to 2023. The results showed that the average absolute ten-day rainfall increase obtained by sequence analysis and regional regression analysis were 7.24mm and 7.89mm, respectively. The sequence analysis passed the significance level of 0.05 in April, May and July. The regional regression analysis passed the significance level of 0.05 in April and July. The regional comparative analysis shows that the daily average absolute rainfall increase is 3.75mm and the average daily relative rainfall increase rate is 21.93%. It passed the significance level of 0.05 in April, June and July, and the significance level of 0.1 in May.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-28
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-27
  • 录用日期:2024-05-29
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