1953—2022年强热带气旋引发南海地区破坏力的时空分布特征和成因浅析
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1.广西大学;2.海南南沙珊瑚礁生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站;3.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室广州

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国家自然科学基金:印太交汇区代表性物种的生物多样性演变及其生态功能(42090041);广西自然科学基金:珊瑚礁水下摄影测量的模型与方法研究(2020GXNSFAA297245);广西南海珊瑚礁研究重点实验室自主基金:南海环境近20年时空演变特征及其对珊瑚礁生态影响的遥感分析(GXLSCRSCS2021102);海南省重点研发项目:基于潜载激光雷达和高光谱的珊瑚礁监测关键技术及示范应用(ZDYF2024SHFZ086)


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Analysis on the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and causes of the destructive forces caused by severe tropical cyclones in the South China Sea during 1953 to 2022
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    摘要:

    为认识强热带气旋(severe tropical cyclone ,STC,达到台风及以上等级的热带气旋) 对南海地区(105°~120°E,3°~25°N)各种目标破坏力的时空分布特征,利用中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)热带气旋最佳路径数据集,计算了南海地区热带气旋强度达到STC等级时段内的能量耗散指数(Power Dissipation Index,PDI)并将其分配到空间不同位置,进而对1953—2022年STC引发南海地区破坏力的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)STC对南海地区破坏力的空间分布呈现出东北高、西南及南部低的特征,其中东沙群岛附近海域(17°~21°N,116°~120°E)是PDI最高的区域,以此为中心,PDI向西、向南呈辐射状递减的趋势。(2)STC对南海地区破坏力较高区域的空间分布范围随时间的变化呈现出先扩大后缩小再扩大的变化。(3)STC对南海地区诸纬度破坏力的时间变化大体都呈现先增大后减小再增大的趋势,而诸时间STC破坏力大体都呈现随纬度降低先增大后减小的趋势,其重心则呈现总体南移的趋势。进一步分析认为,途经南海地区的西太平洋STC数量和持续时间的变化是导致南海地区STC破坏力时空分布特征发生变化的主要因素。

    Abstract:

    To understand the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the destructive forces of the severe tropical cyclones (STC, tropical cyclones with intensities that is higher than typhoon) to various targets in the South China Sea (SCS), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) tropical cyclone best track dataset was used to calculate the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of the tropical cyclones reaching to STC level. Thereafter, the PDIs were then assigned to different spatial locations for analyzing on the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the destructive forces of the STC in the SCS from 1953 to 2022. The results showed that: 1) The spatial distributions of the STC destructive forces exhibit high values in the northeast and low values in the southwest and southern regions. That is, the water areas around the Dongsha Islands (17°~21°N, 116°~120°E) have the highest PDIs, and as far away from the Dongsha Islands, the PDIs decrease radially towards the west and the south. 2) The spatial extent of high-destructive-force areas shows a trend of initial increase, followed by a decrease, and thereafter increase again over the time. 3) The destructive forces of the STC also show an increasing-decreasing-increasing trend over the time, and show an increasing followed by decreasing trend with the latitudes decreasing. Moreover, the centroids of the PDIs of the STC are generally seen moving to the south. Further analyses indicate that the variabilities of the numbers and duration of the STC that are produced in the Western Pacific and then enter the SCS are the most important factors that affect the spatial distributions of the STC destructive forces in the SCS.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-07
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-21
  • 录用日期:2024-05-29
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