数字滤波初始化对台风“烟花”数值模拟的影响
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温晓培,女,硕士,工程师,主要从事中尺度数值模拟研究,wenxp10@163.com。

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中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J015,CXFZ2023J084);山东台风与海洋气象创新团队项目(SDCXTD2021-2);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2022MD040);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM202007,QYXM202202);山东省气象局科研项目(2019sdqxm07)


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Impacts of digital filter initialization on numerical simulation of Typhoon In-fa
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    摘要:

    基于中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting),分析在逐小时循环同化系统中,高频多次应用数字滤波初始化方案对台风“烟花”模拟结果的影响。结果表明:(1)数字滤波能够产生与天气现象相关的滤波增量。晴空区域由于向后积分过程中辐射等重要过程未开启,后向积分结束时近地面温度变化较小,在向前积分时白天到达地表的太阳短波辐射过度累积,夜间地表热辐射过度释放,造成晴空区白天2 m温度升高,夜间2 m温度降低。台风对流区域受后向积分为绝热过程的影响,原本上升运动中水汽凝结释放潜热脱离气块的降水无法在绝热下沉增温中吸收热量变为水汽,在后向积分时产生了热量的异常累积以及水汽的减少,导致强对流区域热力结构发生变化。(2)统计结果显示,随着数字滤波应用次数的增加,初始化过程对初始场和预报的影响逐渐积累,造成的预报差异持续整个模拟过程。(3)在循环同化的基础上多次应用数字滤波初始化,数字滤波初始化显示出较好的抑制高频噪声的作用。多次滤波后台风环流中心暖心增强引起台风强度增强,最低气压更加接近最佳路径资料;暖湿气流向鲁南地区输送的减弱造成鲁西南地区特大暴雨漏报;台风环流位置的偏南影响了后期与西风槽结合的时间导致后期移速偏慢。

    Abstract:

    The impacts of high-frequency application of digital filter initialization schemes on the simulation of Typhoon In-fa in the hourly cycling assimilation system are studied using the mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The main results are as follows. (1) The digital filtering can generate filtering increments related to weather phenomena. In the clear sky area, the physical process such as radiation is closed during the backward integration, the near-surface temperature changes mildly at the end of backward integration, and during the forward integration, the downward shortwave radiation accumulates exceedingly at the surface in the daytime, while the surface emits much heat radiation in the nighttime, therefore, the 2-m temperature rises in the daytime and falls in the nighttime. In the convection area of typhoon, considering that the backward integration is adiabatic, the rainfall from the air mass during the original ascending motion with vapor condensation and latent heat release cannot absorb heat and become water vapor in the adiabatic sinking and warming. The heat abnormally accumulates and water vapor decreases during the backward integration, resulting in the change of thermal structure in the strong convection area. (2) The statistical results show that with the increase of the frequency of digital filtering, the impacts of initialization on initial field and prediction increase, and the caused prediction differences remain in the whole simulation process. (3) By applying several times of digital filter initialization on the basis of cycling assimilation, digital filtering initialization can suppress high-frequency noise. The reason is that after multiple filtering, the typhoon intensity increases due to the strengthening of the warm core of the typhoon circulation center, and the minimum pressure is more close to the best track data; the weakening of warm and humid air transport to the south of Shandong Province results in the severe rain’s missing alarm in the province’s southeastern part; the southerly position of the typhoon circulation affects the time of its combining with the westerly trough, leading to the lower moving speed in the later period.

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温晓培,李昌义,肖明静,朱文刚,刘诗军.数字滤波初始化对台风“烟花”数值模拟的影响[J].海洋气象学报,2024,(2):110-122.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-23
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-06-07
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