气候变化和人为源减排对中国硫酸盐浓度的影响
作者:
作者单位:

1.中国海洋大学三亚海洋研究院/中国海洋大学教育部海洋环境与生态重点实验室;2.之江实验室

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基金项目:

海南省科技计划三亚崖州湾科技城联合项目、中央高校基本科研业务费


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Impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions reduction on sulfate aerosol in China
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of China/Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China;2.Zhejiang Lab

Fund Project:

Hainan Provincial Joint Project of Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

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    摘要:

    二次无机气溶胶的生成是造成中国区域重污染事件中细颗粒物浓度过高的一个主要原因,其中硫酸盐是我国二次无机气溶胶的重要组成部分,但其受未来排放和气候变化的调节机制尚不清晰。本研究基于区域气象和空气质量模式 Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)和 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ),探究21世纪中叶(2056—2060 年)我国硫酸盐的演变特征。首先,在历史情景(2015—2019年)下,我国硫酸盐浓度呈明显时空差异特征。其中,典型高浓度区在我国北方如华北地区,冬季最高,夏季一般浓度较低。未来情景模拟选取近似碳中和目标的可持续发展路径(SSP126)和温室气体持续增加、污染物轻度减排的SSP585情景。在SSP126情景下,全国四个季节硫酸盐平均浓度相较历史情景分别变化-3.1 μg·m-3 、-2.7 μg·m-3 、-3.5 μg·m-3 和-4.1 μg·m-3 ; SSP585 情景下相较历史情景分别变化-1.8 μg·m-3 、-1.5 μg·m-3 、-2.0 μg·m-3 和-2.2 μg·m-3 ,均在冬季降幅最多。最后,分离了人为源与气候变化分别对硫酸盐的影响。由于人为排放源减少,在SSP126情景和SSP585情景下硫酸盐浓度分别变化-3.5 μg·m-3和-2.1 μg·m-3。为探究气候变化的影响,设置两个仅改变气候、维持排放在历史情景不变的数值模拟试验,在气候变化程度较大的SSP585情景下我国硫酸盐平均浓度变化幅度(+0.4 μg·m-3)比在气候变化程度较小的SSP126情景下(+0.2 μg·m-3)大。研究表明,人为源减排对我国硫酸盐浓度的影响比气候变化大,尤其在冬季高浓度区域(如京津冀)降幅超过14 μg·m-3,但气候变化依然有不可忽视的影响。

    Abstract:

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) is an important factor contributing to the high concentration of fine particulate matter during the heavy pollution period in China. Sulfate is an important component of secondary inorganic aerosols in China, but the governing mechanisms by future emissions and climate change are still unclear. Based on a regional meteorological and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), this study aims to explore the evolution characteristics of sulfate in China during the mid-century (2056-2060). Firstly, at present (2015-2019), the concentration of sulfate in China exhibits substantial spatiotemporal variations. The typical feature is that high concentration areas are located in northern China, such as North China, with the highest concentration in winter and generally lower concentration in summer. In future, both the quasi-carbon neutrality scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)126 and SSP585 with continuous increase of greenhouse gases and slightly reduction in air pollutants. In the SSP126 scenario, the average sulfate concentration in the four seasons decreased by 3.1 μg·m-3, 2.7 μg·m-3, 3.5 μg·m-3 and 4.1 μg·m-3 respectively compared with the historical scenario; in the SSP585 scenario, it decreased by 1.8 μg·m-3, 1.5 μg·m-3, 2.0 μg·m-3 and 2.2 μg·m-3 respectively, with the most decrease in winter. Finally, the effects of anthropogenic emissions and climate change on sulfate are isolated. Due to the reduction of anthropogenic emission sources, the sulfate concentrations decreased by 3.5 μg·m-3 and 2.1 μg·m-3 in the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. To investigate the impact of climate change only, two numerical simulation experiments are set up to change the climate only by maintaining emissions at the historical level. The average concentration of sulfate in China under the SSP585 scenario show a larger degree of increase (+0.4 μg·m-3) compared to that under SSP126 (+0.2 μg·m-3). Our research shows that the impact of anthropogenic emission reduction on sulfate concentration in China is greater than climate change, especially over areas with severe pollution (e.g., Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei), the decrease reaches more than 14 μg·m-3 in winter. Nevertheless, the effect of climate change remains to be nonnegligible.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-01
  • 最后修改日期:2024-04-11
  • 录用日期:2024-05-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-29
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