Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) is an important factor contributing to the high concentration of fine particulate matter during the heavy pollution period in China. Sulfate is an important component of secondary inorganic aerosols in China, but the governing mechanisms by future emissions and climate change are still unclear. Based on a regional meteorological and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), this study aims to explore the evolution characteristics of sulfate in China during the mid-century (2056-2060). Firstly, at present (2015-2019), the concentration of sulfate in China exhibits substantial spatiotemporal variations. The typical feature is that high concentration areas are located in northern China, such as North China, with the highest concentration in winter and generally lower concentration in summer. In future, both the quasi-carbon neutrality scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)126 and SSP585 with continuous increase of greenhouse gases and slightly reduction in air pollutants. In the SSP126 scenario, the average sulfate concentration in the four seasons decreased by 3.1 μg·m-3, 2.7 μg·m-3, 3.5 μg·m-3 and 4.1 μg·m-3 respectively compared with the historical scenario; in the SSP585 scenario, it decreased by 1.8 μg·m-3, 1.5 μg·m-3, 2.0 μg·m-3 and 2.2 μg·m-3 respectively, with the most decrease in winter. Finally, the effects of anthropogenic emissions and climate change on sulfate are isolated. Due to the reduction of anthropogenic emission sources, the sulfate concentrations decreased by 3.5 μg·m-3 and 2.1 μg·m-3 in the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. To investigate the impact of climate change only, two numerical simulation experiments are set up to change the climate only by maintaining emissions at the historical level. The average concentration of sulfate in China under the SSP585 scenario show a larger degree of increase (+0.4 μg·m-3) compared to that under SSP126 (+0.2 μg·m-3). Our research shows that the impact of anthropogenic emission reduction on sulfate concentration in China is greater than climate change, especially over areas with severe pollution (e.g., Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei), the decrease reaches more than 14 μg·m-3 in winter. Nevertheless, the effect of climate change remains to be nonnegligible.