台风“杜苏芮”(2305)影响福建期间的DSAEF_LTP模型降水预报检验
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1.厦门市海峡气象重点开放实验室/厦门市气象局;2.灾害天气国家重点实验室/中国气象科学研究院

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P732.7

基金项目:

福建省自然科学基金(2022J01446) ;中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J014);河南省科技研发计划联合基金(222103810091);华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ202317)通讯作者:王新敏,女,研究员级高级工程师,主要从事天气预报技术和暴雨机理研究.Email:995378392@qq.com


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Verification of precipitation forecast of typhoon Doksuri (2305) during its impact on Fujian base on the DSAEF_LTP model
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1.Xiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology,Xiamen Meteorological Bureau;2.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing

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    摘要:

    为了评估改进的动力统计集合预报模型(DSAEF_LTP)在2023年第5号超强台风“杜苏芮”影响福建地区的表现,本文对DSAEF_LTP预报的台风过程降水量进行了常规检验和空间检验,并和欧洲中期天气预报中心数值预报降水产品(ECMWF)、福建省气象局OTS订正降水产品(FZECMOS)结果进行对比,分析结果表明:DSAEF_LTP模型对福建沿海强降水落区和东北部强降水中心的预报接近实况,在≥100mm和≥250mm等极端降水上T_S评分比ECMWF和FZECMOS提升明显,但DSAEF_LTP模型存在特大暴雨预报范围显著偏小等缺点;在≥100mm和≥250mm量级上,MODE空间检验显示DSAEF_LTP模型在整体相似度上明显优于ECMWF和FZECMOS,尤其在对孤立小区域强降水的预报性能方面表现出色;随着降水检验量级的由小到大,DSAEF_LTP模型预报产品与实况重叠面积比例也增大,表明DSAEF_LTP模型在极端降水方面的预报效果更加突出;另外,DSAEF_LTP模型还能够根据最新的相似路径实况和预报,调整筛选历史相似台风,合理保留相似台风及其降水分布,使得集合预报效果得以改善。

    Abstract:

    To evaluate the performance of the DSAEF_LTP(dynamical–Statistical–Analog ensemble forecast model) during the impact of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2305) on the Fujian region, this paper conducted conventional and spatial verification of the typhoon's process precipitation forecasted by DSAEF_LTP, and compare it with the results of the Precipitation forecasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (hereafter referred to as ECMWF), and the Revised Precipitation Product of the Fujian Meteorological Bureau OTS (hereafter referred to as FZECMOS). The main findings are summarized as follows: The main findings are as follows: The DSAEF_LTP model's predictions for coastal intense precipitation distributions and the northeastern intense precipitation center in Fujian closely align with actual observations. The T_S values of the DSAEF_LTP model show significant improvement at the ≥100 mm and ≥250 mm thresholds compared to ECMWF and FZECMOS.However,the DSAEF_LTP model has shortcomings such as a significantly small forecast area for very heavy rainfall.At the ≥100 mm and ≥250 mm scale, verification results of MODE reveals that the DSAEF_LTP model outperforms ECMWF and FZECMOS in overall similarity, particularly in forecasting intense precipitation in isolated small areas. As the magnitude of precipitation increases, the overlap area between the DSAEF_LTP model forecast products and the observation also increases, indicating the model's effectiveness in forecasting extreme precipitation. The DSAEF_LTP model demonstrates its ability to flexibly adjust and screen historical similar TCs, allowing for the reasonable retention of similar TCs and their associated precipitation distributions, which enhances the ensemble forecasting effect.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-26
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-01
  • 录用日期:2024-08-23
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