2023年夏季山东降水异常特征及成因分析
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山东省气候中心

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山东省气象局科研项目(SDTQ2023-02、SDYBY2020-02);山东省自然科学基金(ZR202211080149)


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Analysis on characteristics and causes of summer precipitation anomalies in Shandong in 2023
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    摘要:

    2023年山东夏季降水量414.4 mm,较常年偏少1.0%,季内降水过程少,降水量受台风“杜苏芮”影响较大,如果去除台风降水,夏季降水量较常年偏少15.9%。2023年西太平洋副热带高压西段位置偏南、水汽输送条件差,贝加尔湖上空为高度场正距平,影响山东的冷空气势力偏弱,使得夏季降水略偏少。此外,2023年为早发型厄尔尼诺年,早发型厄尔尼诺年西太平洋海温异常偏冷导致沃克环流位置改变且下沉支异常增强,也导致哈德莱环流减弱且位置偏南,并伴随费雷尔环流增强,使得西太副高位置偏南以及山东上空盛行异常下沉气流,不利于夏季降水发生。

    Abstract:

    In 2023,the average summer precipitation in Shandong was 414. 4 mm,which is 1. 0% less than that in normal years. The number of precipitation processes is less , and the more precipitation is mainly caused by Typhoon Doksuri.If the typhoon precipitation is removed,the summer precipitation in Shandong would be 15.9% less than that in normal years.In summer, the western section of the western Pacific subtropical high lay southward and the water vapour transport conditions were poor, accompanied with the height field positively over Lake Baika and southern weaker cold air, which was the direct reason for the less summer precipitation after excluding typhoon-induced precipitation.In addition, the abnormally cold sea surface temperature in the western Pacific Ocean causes the position of the Walker Circulation to change and the abnormal strengthening of its downward branch in early onset El Ni?o year. It also causes the Hadley Circulation to weaken and move southward, and the Ferrel Circulation to strengthen. This causes the western Pacific subtropical high to move southward and abnormal downward air currents to prevail over Shandong, making summer precipitation less likely.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-14
  • 录用日期:2025-04-11
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